Opinion Poll by ZRI Závecz Research, 1–20 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 44.9% 49.9% 47.9–51.9% 47.3–52.5% 46.8–53.0% 45.8–54.0%
Jobbik 20.2% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
MSZP 25.6% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
DK 25.6% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
LMP 5.3% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
MM 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Együtt 25.6% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
MLP 25.6% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
MKKP 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Párbeszéd 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 156 154–158 153–159 153–159 152–160
Jobbik 23 16 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
MSZP 29 13 11–14 11–14 11–15 10–16
DK 4 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
LMP 5 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
MM 0 0 0 0 0 0
Együtt 3 0 0 0 0 0
MLP 1 0 0 0 0 0
MKKP 0 0 0 0 0 0
Párbeszéd 1 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–KDNP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0.2% 100%  
152 0.9% 99.8%  
153 5% 98.9%  
154 8% 94%  
155 21% 86%  
156 23% 65% Median
157 20% 42%  
158 14% 22%  
159 6% 8%  
160 1.4% 2%  
161 0.2% 0.3%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Jobbik

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 13% 98%  
15 25% 85%  
16 34% 60% Median
17 18% 26%  
18 8% 9%  
19 1.1% 1.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

MSZP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 2% 100%  
11 11% 98%  
12 28% 87%  
13 36% 59% Median
14 19% 24%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

DK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.3% 100%  
6 9% 99.7%  
7 36% 91%  
8 40% 55% Median
9 13% 15%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

LMP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 6% 99.7% Last Result
6 37% 94%  
7 42% 57% Median
8 13% 15%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

MM

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Együtt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

MLP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

MKKP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Párbeszéd

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 156 100% 154–158 153–159 153–159 152–160
MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd 38 20 0% 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24

Fidesz–KDNP

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0.2% 100%  
152 0.9% 99.8%  
153 5% 98.9%  
154 8% 94%  
155 21% 86%  
156 23% 65% Median
157 20% 42%  
158 14% 22%  
159 6% 8%  
160 1.4% 2%  
161 0.2% 0.3%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.2% 99.9%  
18 6% 98.7%  
19 18% 92%  
20 29% 74%  
21 26% 45% Median
22 14% 19%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.9% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations