Opinion Poll by Medián for hvg.hu, 19–23 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 44.9% 53.2% 51.3–55.0% 50.8–55.5% 50.3–56.0% 49.4–56.9%
Jobbik 20.2% 18.1% 16.7–19.6% 16.3–20.0% 16.0–20.4% 15.4–21.1%
MSZP 25.6% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
DK 25.6% 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.5–10.8% 7.1–11.3%
LMP 5.3% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.5% 4.4–8.0%
Együtt 25.6% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
MM 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
MLP 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
MKKP 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 157 156–160 155–160 155–161 154–163
Jobbik 23 17 16–19 15–19 15–20 14–20
MSZP 29 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
DK 4 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–11
LMP 5 5 5–6 0–7 0–7 0–7
Együtt 3 0 0 0 0 0
MM 0 0 0 0 0 0
MLP 1 0 0 0 0 0
MKKP 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–KDNP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0.2% 100%  
154 2% 99.8%  
155 6% 98%  
156 19% 92%  
157 24% 73% Median
158 26% 50%  
159 12% 24%  
160 8% 12%  
161 3% 4%  
162 1.0% 2%  
163 0.4% 0.6%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Jobbik

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.6% 100%  
15 6% 99.4%  
16 16% 94%  
17 37% 77% Median
18 26% 41%  
19 12% 15%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

MSZP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.2% 100%  
9 13% 98.8%  
10 37% 86% Median
11 35% 49%  
12 12% 13%  
13 1.4% 1.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

DK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 1.1% 100%  
7 11% 98.9%  
8 44% 88% Median
9 35% 45%  
10 9% 10%  
11 1.0% 1.0%  
12 0% 0%  

LMP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0.9% 94%  
5 45% 93% Last Result, Median
6 42% 49%  
7 6% 7%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Együtt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

MM

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

MLP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

MKKP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 157 100% 156–160 155–160 155–161 154–163

Fidesz–KDNP

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0.2% 100%  
154 2% 99.8%  
155 6% 98%  
156 19% 92%  
157 24% 73% Median
158 26% 50%  
159 12% 24%  
160 8% 12%  
161 3% 4%  
162 1.0% 2%  
163 0.4% 0.6%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations