Opinion Poll by TÁRKI, 11–23 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 44.9% | 62.7% | 60.8–64.7% | 60.2–65.2% | 59.7–65.7% | 58.8–66.6% |
| Jobbik | 20.2% | 14.1% | 12.8–15.6% | 12.4–16.0% | 12.1–16.4% | 11.5–17.2% |
| MSZP | 25.6% | 7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.4% |
| DK | 25.6% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| LMP | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Együtt | 25.6% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Párbeszéd | 25.6% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
| MM | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| MLP | 25.6% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| MKKP | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 171 | 169–174 | 168–175 | 167–176 | 166–178 |
| Jobbik | 23 | 15 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 11–18 |
| MSZP | 29 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| DK | 4 | 6 | 5–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| LMP | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Együtt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Párbeszéd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MLP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MKKP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 167 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 168 | 3% | 96% | |
| 169 | 6% | 93% | |
| 170 | 14% | 87% | |
| 171 | 29% | 73% | Median |
| 172 | 17% | 44% | |
| 173 | 15% | 27% | |
| 174 | 6% | 12% | |
| 175 | 2% | 6% | |
| 176 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 177 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 12 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 14% | 95% | |
| 14 | 28% | 81% | |
| 15 | 36% | 53% | Median |
| 16 | 12% | 16% | |
| 17 | 4% | 5% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 23% | 97% | |
| 7 | 43% | 74% | Median |
| 8 | 26% | 31% | |
| 9 | 5% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 94% | |
| 2 | 0% | 94% | |
| 3 | 0% | 94% | |
| 4 | 0% | 94% | Last Result |
| 5 | 27% | 94% | |
| 6 | 45% | 67% | Median |
| 7 | 20% | 22% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 8% | |
| 5 | 7% | 8% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Párbeszéd
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
MLP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 171 | 100% | 169–174 | 168–175 | 167–176 | 166–178 |
| MSZP – DK – Együtt – Párbeszéd – MLP | 38 | 13 | 0% | 11–14 | 8–15 | 7–15 | 6–16 |
Fidesz–KDNP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 167 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 168 | 3% | 96% | |
| 169 | 6% | 93% | |
| 170 | 14% | 87% | |
| 171 | 29% | 73% | Median |
| 172 | 17% | 44% | |
| 173 | 15% | 27% | |
| 174 | 6% | 12% | |
| 175 | 2% | 6% | |
| 176 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 177 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
MSZP – DK – Együtt – Párbeszéd – MLP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 2% | 97% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 11 | 11% | 93% | |
| 12 | 14% | 83% | |
| 13 | 40% | 69% | Median |
| 14 | 20% | 29% | |
| 15 | 7% | 9% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TÁRKI
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 11–23 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1012
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 1.36%