Opinion Poll by Századvég Alapítvány, 17–24 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 44.9% 50.5% 48.5–52.5% 47.9–53.1% 47.4–53.6% 46.4–54.6%
Jobbik 20.2% 15.8% 14.4–17.4% 14.0–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.0–19.0%
MSZP 25.6% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.1% 10.4–15.9%
LMP 5.3% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
DK 25.6% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Együtt 25.6% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Párbeszéd 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
MLP 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
MKKP 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
MM 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 155 153–159 152–160 152–161 151–162
Jobbik 23 15 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
MSZP 29 12 11–14 11–14 10–15 10–16
LMP 5 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
DK 4 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Együtt 3 0 0 0 0 0
Párbeszéd 1 0 0 0 0 0
MLP 1 0 0 0 0 0
MKKP 0 0 0 0 0 0
MM 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–KDNP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0.3% 100%  
151 1.3% 99.7%  
152 5% 98%  
153 9% 94%  
154 19% 85%  
155 19% 66% Median
156 15% 47%  
157 12% 32%  
158 9% 21%  
159 5% 11%  
160 3% 6%  
161 2% 3%  
162 0.3% 0.6%  
163 0.2% 0.3%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Jobbik

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.8% 100%  
13 6% 99.2%  
14 21% 93%  
15 29% 72% Median
16 28% 44%  
17 12% 16%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.7% 0.8%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

MSZP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 4% 99.7%  
11 18% 96%  
12 35% 77% Median
13 26% 42%  
14 13% 17%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

LMP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100% Last Result
6 14% 99.2%  
7 41% 86% Median
8 34% 45%  
9 10% 11%  
10 1.5% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

DK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 1.4% 91% Last Result
5 43% 89% Median
6 36% 46%  
7 9% 10%  
8 0.6% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

Együtt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Párbeszéd

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

MLP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

MKKP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

MM

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 155 100% 153–159 152–160 152–161 151–162
MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd 38 18 0% 15–20 13–20 12–20 11–21

Fidesz–KDNP

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0.3% 100%  
151 1.3% 99.7%  
152 5% 98%  
153 9% 94%  
154 19% 85%  
155 19% 66% Median
156 15% 47%  
157 12% 32%  
158 9% 21%  
159 5% 11%  
160 3% 6%  
161 2% 3%  
162 0.3% 0.6%  
163 0.2% 0.3%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.6% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.3%  
13 3% 97%  
14 3% 95%  
15 3% 91%  
16 10% 89%  
17 24% 78% Median
18 28% 55%  
19 16% 27%  
20 9% 11%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations