Opinion Poll by Századvég Alapítvány, 17–24 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 44.9% | 50.5% | 48.5–52.5% | 47.9–53.1% | 47.4–53.6% | 46.4–54.6% |
| Jobbik | 20.2% | 15.8% | 14.4–17.4% | 14.0–17.8% | 13.7–18.2% | 13.0–19.0% |
| MSZP | 25.6% | 12.9% | 11.6–14.4% | 11.3–14.8% | 11.0–15.1% | 10.4–15.9% |
| LMP | 5.3% | 7.9% | 6.9–9.1% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.4–9.7% | 5.9–10.3% |
| DK | 25.6% | 5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.2–8.1% |
| Együtt | 25.6% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Párbeszéd | 25.6% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| MLP | 25.6% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| MKKP | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| MM | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 155 | 153–159 | 152–160 | 152–161 | 151–162 |
| Jobbik | 23 | 15 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 12–19 |
| MSZP | 29 | 12 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
| LMP | 5 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| DK | 4 | 5 | 4–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| Együtt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Párbeszéd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MLP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MKKP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 151 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 152 | 5% | 98% | |
| 153 | 9% | 94% | |
| 154 | 19% | 85% | |
| 155 | 19% | 66% | Median |
| 156 | 15% | 47% | |
| 157 | 12% | 32% | |
| 158 | 9% | 21% | |
| 159 | 5% | 11% | |
| 160 | 3% | 6% | |
| 161 | 2% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 13 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 14 | 21% | 93% | |
| 15 | 29% | 72% | Median |
| 16 | 28% | 44% | |
| 17 | 12% | 16% | |
| 18 | 3% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 18% | 96% | |
| 12 | 35% | 77% | Median |
| 13 | 26% | 42% | |
| 14 | 13% | 17% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 14% | 99.2% | |
| 7 | 41% | 86% | Median |
| 8 | 34% | 45% | |
| 9 | 10% | 11% | |
| 10 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 91% | |
| 2 | 0% | 91% | |
| 3 | 0% | 91% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 91% | Last Result |
| 5 | 43% | 89% | Median |
| 6 | 36% | 46% | |
| 7 | 9% | 10% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Párbeszéd
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MLP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 155 | 100% | 153–159 | 152–160 | 152–161 | 151–162 |
| MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd | 38 | 18 | 0% | 15–20 | 13–20 | 12–20 | 11–21 |
Fidesz–KDNP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 151 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 152 | 5% | 98% | |
| 153 | 9% | 94% | |
| 154 | 19% | 85% | |
| 155 | 19% | 66% | Median |
| 156 | 15% | 47% | |
| 157 | 12% | 32% | |
| 158 | 9% | 21% | |
| 159 | 5% | 11% | |
| 160 | 3% | 6% | |
| 161 | 2% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 13 | 3% | 97% | |
| 14 | 3% | 95% | |
| 15 | 3% | 91% | |
| 16 | 10% | 89% | |
| 17 | 24% | 78% | Median |
| 18 | 28% | 55% | |
| 19 | 16% | 27% | |
| 20 | 9% | 11% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Századvég Alapítvány
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 17–24 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 1.36%