Opinion Poll by Republikon Intézet for 24.hu, 1–31 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 44.9% | 52.9% | 50.9–54.9% | 50.3–55.5% | 49.8–56.0% | 48.8–56.9% |
| Jobbik | 20.2% | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
| MSZP | 25.6% | 13.0% | 11.7–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–16.0% |
| DK | 25.6% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| LMP | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| MM | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Együtt | 25.6% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| MLP | 25.6% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| MKKP | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 163 | 160–166 | 159–167 | 158–168 | 157–169 |
| Jobbik | 23 | 19 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 16–23 |
| MSZP | 29 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 11–17 |
| DK | 4 | 5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| LMP | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| MM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Együtt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MLP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MKKP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 158 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 159 | 5% | 97% | |
| 160 | 11% | 92% | |
| 161 | 13% | 82% | |
| 162 | 13% | 68% | |
| 163 | 14% | 55% | Median |
| 164 | 11% | 41% | |
| 165 | 12% | 30% | |
| 166 | 10% | 18% | |
| 167 | 6% | 9% | |
| 168 | 2% | 3% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 16 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 17 | 12% | 97% | |
| 18 | 19% | 86% | |
| 19 | 26% | 66% | Median |
| 20 | 23% | 40% | |
| 21 | 13% | 18% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 13% | 97% | |
| 13 | 29% | 84% | |
| 14 | 30% | 56% | Median |
| 15 | 19% | 26% | |
| 16 | 6% | 7% | |
| 17 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 52% | |
| 2 | 0% | 52% | |
| 3 | 0% | 52% | |
| 4 | 0% | 52% | Last Result |
| 5 | 31% | 52% | Median |
| 6 | 19% | 21% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 7% | |
| 5 | 6% | 7% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MLP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 163 | 100% | 160–166 | 159–167 | 158–168 | 157–169 |
Fidesz–KDNP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 158 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 159 | 5% | 97% | |
| 160 | 11% | 92% | |
| 161 | 13% | 82% | |
| 162 | 13% | 68% | |
| 163 | 14% | 55% | Median |
| 164 | 11% | 41% | |
| 165 | 12% | 30% | |
| 166 | 10% | 18% | |
| 167 | 6% | 9% | |
| 168 | 2% | 3% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Republikon Intézet
- Commissioner(s): 24.hu
- Fieldwork period: 1–31 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 2.59%