Opinion Poll by Századvég Alapítvány, 6–13 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 44.9% 50.6% 48.6–52.6% 48.0–53.2% 47.5–53.7% 46.5–54.7%
Jobbik 20.2% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
MSZP 25.6% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
LMP 5.3% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
DK 25.6% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%
Együtt 25.6% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
MLP 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
MKKP 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
MM 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 154 152–157 152–157 152–158 151–159
Jobbik 23 13 12–15 11–15 11–15 10–16
MSZP 29 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–12
LMP 5 9 8–10 8–11 7–11 7–12
DK 4 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Együtt 3 0 0 0 0 0
MLP 1 0 0 0 0 0
MKKP 0 0 0 0 0 0
MM 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–KDNP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0.3% 100%  
151 2% 99.7%  
152 8% 98%  
153 15% 90%  
154 29% 75% Median
155 19% 47%  
156 15% 27%  
157 8% 13%  
158 4% 5%  
159 0.7% 1.0%  
160 0.2% 0.3%  
161 0% 0%  

Jobbik

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.6% 100%  
11 6% 99.4%  
12 23% 94%  
13 35% 71% Median
14 25% 36%  
15 10% 11%  
16 1.4% 1.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

MSZP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 22% 98%  
9 35% 75% Median
10 32% 40%  
11 7% 8%  
12 1.0% 1.0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

LMP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.1% 100%  
7 3% 99.9%  
8 22% 97%  
9 39% 75% Median
10 28% 36%  
11 7% 8%  
12 1.0% 1.1%  
13 0% 0%  

DK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
5 15% 99.2%  
6 41% 84% Median
7 36% 44%  
8 7% 8%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Együtt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

MLP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

MKKP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

MM

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 154 100% 152–157 152–157 152–158 151–159

Fidesz–KDNP

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0.3% 100%  
151 2% 99.7%  
152 8% 98%  
153 15% 90%  
154 29% 75% Median
155 19% 47%  
156 15% 27%  
157 8% 13%  
158 4% 5%  
159 0.7% 1.0%  
160 0.2% 0.3%  
161 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations