Opinion Poll by Publicus Research, 9–14 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 44.9% 47.6% 45.6–49.6% 45.0–50.2% 44.5–50.7% 43.6–51.7%
MSZP 25.6% 17.9% 16.4–19.5% 16.0–20.0% 15.6–20.4% 14.9–21.2%
Jobbik 20.2% 15.9% 14.5–17.4% 14.1–17.9% 13.7–18.3% 13.1–19.0%
LMP 5.3% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
DK 25.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
MKKP 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
MM 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Együtt 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
Párbeszéd 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
MLP 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 154 151–157 150–158 150–159 149–160
MSZP 29 19 16–21 16–21 16–22 15–23
Jobbik 23 16 14–18 14–18 14–19 13–19
LMP 5 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
DK 4 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
MKKP 0 0 0 0 0 0
MM 0 0 0 0 0 0
Együtt 3 0 0 0 0 0
Párbeszéd 1 0 0 0 0 0
MLP 1 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–KDNP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0.4% 100%  
149 1.3% 99.5%  
150 5% 98%  
151 10% 94%  
152 10% 84%  
153 19% 74%  
154 18% 55% Median
155 12% 37%  
156 9% 25%  
157 7% 16%  
158 6% 10%  
159 3% 3%  
160 0.8% 0.9%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0% 0%  

MSZP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 2% 99.7%  
16 13% 98%  
17 11% 85%  
18 16% 74%  
19 28% 58% Median
20 16% 29%  
21 9% 13%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Jobbik

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 12% 98%  
15 30% 86%  
16 28% 56% Median
17 18% 28%  
18 8% 11%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

LMP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100% Last Result
6 6% 99.7%  
7 33% 94%  
8 38% 60% Median
9 18% 22%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

DK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100%  
1 0% 53%  
2 0% 53%  
3 0% 53%  
4 0% 53% Last Result
5 40% 53% Median
6 12% 13%  
7 0.5% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

MKKP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

MM

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Együtt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Párbeszéd

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

MLP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 154 100% 151–157 150–158 150–159 149–160
MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd 38 21 0% 17–25 17–25 16–26 16–27

Fidesz–KDNP

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0.4% 100%  
149 1.3% 99.5%  
150 5% 98%  
151 10% 94%  
152 10% 84%  
153 19% 74%  
154 18% 55% Median
155 12% 37%  
156 9% 25%  
157 7% 16%  
158 6% 10%  
159 3% 3%  
160 0.8% 0.9%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0% 0%  

MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 4% 99.7%  
17 6% 96%  
18 8% 90%  
19 9% 82%  
20 11% 73%  
21 14% 62%  
22 9% 48%  
23 7% 39%  
24 18% 32% Median
25 9% 14%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.7% 0.8%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations