Opinion Poll by ZRI Závecz Research, 7–15 February 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 44.9% | 51.6% | 49.6–53.6% | 49.0–54.2% | 48.5–54.7% | 47.5–55.7% |
| Jobbik | 20.2% | 17.2% | 15.7–18.8% | 15.3–19.3% | 15.0–19.7% | 14.3–20.5% |
| MSZP | 25.6% | 13.2% | 11.9–14.7% | 11.6–15.1% | 11.2–15.5% | 10.7–16.2% |
| DK | 25.6% | 8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.7% | 6.6–10.0% | 6.1–10.6% |
| LMP | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| MM | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Együtt | 25.6% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| MLP | 25.6% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| MKKP | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 157 | 154–159 | 154–160 | 153–160 | 152–162 |
| Jobbik | 23 | 17 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| MSZP | 29 | 13 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| DK | 4 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| LMP | 5 | 6 | 5–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| MM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Együtt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MLP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MKKP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 154 | 8% | 97% | |
| 155 | 16% | 90% | |
| 156 | 19% | 74% | |
| 157 | 26% | 54% | Median |
| 158 | 15% | 28% | |
| 159 | 7% | 13% | |
| 160 | 3% | 6% | |
| 161 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% |
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 18% | 96% | |
| 16 | 26% | 78% | |
| 17 | 26% | 52% | Median |
| 18 | 18% | 26% | |
| 19 | 7% | 8% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 10% | 98% | |
| 12 | 26% | 88% | |
| 13 | 39% | 62% | Median |
| 14 | 17% | 22% | |
| 15 | 5% | 6% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 35% | 91% | |
| 8 | 42% | 56% | Median |
| 9 | 12% | 14% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 94% | |
| 2 | 0% | 94% | |
| 3 | 0% | 94% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 5 | 38% | 92% | Last Result |
| 6 | 40% | 54% | Median |
| 7 | 13% | 14% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MLP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 157 | 100% | 154–159 | 154–160 | 153–160 | 152–162 |
Fidesz–KDNP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 154 | 8% | 97% | |
| 155 | 16% | 90% | |
| 156 | 19% | 74% | |
| 157 | 26% | 54% | Median |
| 158 | 15% | 28% | |
| 159 | 7% | 13% | |
| 160 | 3% | 6% | |
| 161 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: ZRI Závecz Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 7–15 February 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 3.14%