Opinion Poll by Republikon Intézet for 24.hu, 9–22 February 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 44.9% | 50.0% | 48.0–52.0% | 47.4–52.6% | 46.9–53.1% | 45.9–54.1% |
| Jobbik | 20.2% | 19.8% | 18.2–21.5% | 17.8–22.0% | 17.4–22.4% | 16.7–23.2% |
| MSZP | 25.6% | 17.7% | 16.2–19.3% | 15.8–19.8% | 15.5–20.2% | 14.8–21.0% |
| DK | 25.6% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| LMP | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
| Együtt | 25.6% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| MKKP | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| MM | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 154 | 151–157 | 150–158 | 149–159 | 148–160 |
| Jobbik | 23 | 19 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 16–24 |
| MSZP | 29 | 17 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 14–21 |
| DK | 4 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| LMP | 5 | 5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Együtt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MKKP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 149 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 150 | 4% | 97% | |
| 151 | 8% | 93% | |
| 152 | 11% | 85% | |
| 153 | 15% | 74% | |
| 154 | 18% | 59% | Median |
| 155 | 14% | 41% | |
| 156 | 12% | 27% | |
| 157 | 8% | 15% | |
| 158 | 5% | 8% | |
| 159 | 2% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 16 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 17 | 11% | 97% | |
| 18 | 24% | 86% | |
| 19 | 28% | 61% | Median |
| 20 | 21% | 34% | |
| 21 | 8% | 12% | |
| 22 | 2% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 2% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 12% | 97% | |
| 16 | 23% | 86% | |
| 17 | 21% | 63% | Median |
| 18 | 15% | 42% | |
| 19 | 18% | 27% | |
| 20 | 7% | 10% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 0% | 97% | |
| 4 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 5 | 34% | 95% | |
| 6 | 44% | 61% | Median |
| 7 | 15% | 17% | |
| 8 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 62% | |
| 2 | 0% | 62% | |
| 3 | 0% | 62% | |
| 4 | 10% | 62% | |
| 5 | 43% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 9% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 154 | 100% | 151–157 | 150–158 | 149–159 | 148–160 |
Fidesz–KDNP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 149 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 150 | 4% | 97% | |
| 151 | 8% | 93% | |
| 152 | 11% | 85% | |
| 153 | 15% | 74% | |
| 154 | 18% | 59% | Median |
| 155 | 14% | 41% | |
| 156 | 12% | 27% | |
| 157 | 8% | 15% | |
| 158 | 5% | 8% | |
| 159 | 2% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Republikon Intézet
- Commissioner(s): 24.hu
- Fieldwork period: 9–22 February 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.90%