Opinion Poll by Iránytű Intézet for Magyar Nemzet, 1–28 February 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 44.9% | 43.9% | 41.9–45.9% | 41.3–46.5% | 40.8–47.0% | 39.9–48.0% |
| Jobbik | 20.2% | 23.9% | 22.2–25.7% | 21.8–26.2% | 21.4–26.6% | 20.6–27.5% |
| MSZP | 25.6% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| LMP | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| DK | 25.6% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| MM | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Együtt | 25.6% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Párbeszéd | 25.6% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| MLP | 25.6% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| MKKP | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 146 | 143–149 | 141–150 | 140–151 | 135–153 |
| Jobbik | 23 | 26 | 24–29 | 23–31 | 22–33 | 20–38 |
| MSZP | 29 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| LMP | 5 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| DK | 4 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| MM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Együtt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Párbeszéd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MLP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MKKP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 140 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 141 | 3% | 96% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 143 | 5% | 92% | |
| 144 | 4% | 88% | |
| 145 | 12% | 84% | |
| 146 | 32% | 72% | Median |
| 147 | 9% | 41% | |
| 148 | 17% | 31% | |
| 149 | 8% | 14% | |
| 150 | 2% | 6% | |
| 151 | 2% | 4% | |
| 152 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 153 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 22 | 2% | 98% | |
| 23 | 4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 24 | 8% | 92% | |
| 25 | 8% | 84% | |
| 26 | 31% | 76% | Median |
| 27 | 20% | 46% | |
| 28 | 9% | 25% | |
| 29 | 7% | 16% | |
| 30 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 31 | 4% | 8% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 11% | 98.9% | |
| 10 | 32% | 88% | |
| 11 | 37% | 56% | Median |
| 12 | 16% | 19% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 8% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 36% | 92% | |
| 8 | 40% | 55% | Median |
| 9 | 13% | 15% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 10% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 38% | 89% | |
| 8 | 34% | 52% | Median |
| 9 | 16% | 17% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Párbeszéd
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MLP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 146 | 100% | 143–149 | 141–150 | 140–151 | 135–153 |
| MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd | 38 | 18 | 0% | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–22 |
Fidesz–KDNP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 140 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 141 | 3% | 96% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 143 | 5% | 92% | |
| 144 | 4% | 88% | |
| 145 | 12% | 84% | |
| 146 | 32% | 72% | Median |
| 147 | 9% | 41% | |
| 148 | 17% | 31% | |
| 149 | 8% | 14% | |
| 150 | 2% | 6% | |
| 151 | 2% | 4% | |
| 152 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 153 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 7% | 98% | |
| 17 | 20% | 91% | |
| 18 | 29% | 71% | |
| 19 | 27% | 42% | Median |
| 20 | 11% | 16% | |
| 21 | 4% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Iránytű Intézet
- Commissioner(s): Magyar Nemzet
- Fieldwork period: 1–28 February 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 4,194,304
- Error estimate: 2.23%