Opinion Poll by Századvég Alapítvány, 26–28 February 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 44.9% | 52.7% | 50.7–54.7% | 50.1–55.3% | 49.6–55.8% | 48.6–56.7% |
| MSZP | 25.6% | 13.9% | 12.6–15.4% | 12.2–15.8% | 11.9–16.2% | 11.3–16.9% |
| Jobbik | 20.2% | 10.9% | 9.7–12.3% | 9.4–12.7% | 9.1–13.0% | 8.6–13.7% |
| LMP | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| DK | 25.6% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Együtt | 25.6% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| MKKP | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| MM | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 157 | 155–159 | 154–160 | 154–161 | 153–162 |
| MSZP | 29 | 13 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| Jobbik | 23 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
| LMP | 5 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| DK | 4 | 5 | 4–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Együtt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MKKP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 154 | 7% | 98% | |
| 155 | 12% | 91% | |
| 156 | 24% | 78% | |
| 157 | 24% | 55% | Median |
| 158 | 15% | 31% | |
| 159 | 9% | 16% | |
| 160 | 4% | 6% | |
| 161 | 2% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 7% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 23% | 93% | |
| 13 | 36% | 70% | Median |
| 14 | 25% | 34% | |
| 15 | 8% | 10% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 22% | 96% | |
| 10 | 37% | 74% | Median |
| 11 | 28% | 37% | |
| 12 | 8% | 9% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 15% | 99.1% | |
| 7 | 43% | 84% | Median |
| 8 | 32% | 41% | |
| 9 | 8% | 9% | |
| 10 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 0% | 93% | |
| 4 | 3% | 93% | Last Result |
| 5 | 44% | 90% | Median |
| 6 | 39% | 46% | |
| 7 | 7% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 157 | 100% | 155–159 | 154–160 | 154–161 | 153–162 |
Fidesz–KDNP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 154 | 7% | 98% | |
| 155 | 12% | 91% | |
| 156 | 24% | 78% | |
| 157 | 24% | 55% | Median |
| 158 | 15% | 31% | |
| 159 | 9% | 16% | |
| 160 | 4% | 6% | |
| 161 | 2% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Századvég Alapítvány
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 26–28 February 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 1.42%