Opinion Poll by Medián for hvg.hu, 2–7 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 44.9% | 53.8% | 51.9–55.6% | 51.4–56.1% | 50.9–56.6% | 50.0–57.4% |
| Jobbik | 20.2% | 15.9% | 14.6–17.3% | 14.3–17.8% | 13.9–18.1% | 13.4–18.8% |
| MSZP | 25.6% | 11.9% | 10.8–13.2% | 10.5–13.6% | 10.2–13.9% | 9.7–14.5% |
| DK | 25.6% | 8.9% | 7.9–10.1% | 7.7–10.4% | 7.4–10.7% | 7.0–11.2% |
| LMP | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| Együtt | 25.6% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| MM | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| MKKP | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 160 | 158–163 | 157–164 | 156–164 | 156–165 |
| Jobbik | 23 | 16 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| MSZP | 29 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 |
| DK | 4 | 9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| LMP | 5 | 5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Együtt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MKKP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 156 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 157 | 7% | 97% | |
| 158 | 15% | 91% | |
| 159 | 16% | 76% | |
| 160 | 15% | 60% | Median |
| 161 | 14% | 45% | |
| 162 | 15% | 31% | |
| 163 | 10% | 16% | |
| 164 | 5% | 6% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% |
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 11% | 98% | |
| 15 | 29% | 87% | |
| 16 | 34% | 58% | Median |
| 17 | 18% | 25% | |
| 18 | 6% | 7% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 10 | 10% | 99.1% | |
| 11 | 33% | 90% | |
| 12 | 36% | 56% | Median |
| 13 | 17% | 20% | |
| 14 | 3% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 35% | 91% | |
| 9 | 39% | 56% | Median |
| 10 | 14% | 17% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 52% | |
| 2 | 0% | 52% | |
| 3 | 0% | 52% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 52% | |
| 5 | 43% | 51% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 8% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 160 | 100% | 158–163 | 157–164 | 156–164 | 156–165 |
Fidesz–KDNP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 156 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 157 | 7% | 97% | |
| 158 | 15% | 91% | |
| 159 | 16% | 76% | |
| 160 | 15% | 60% | Median |
| 161 | 14% | 45% | |
| 162 | 15% | 31% | |
| 163 | 10% | 16% | |
| 164 | 5% | 6% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Medián
- Commissioner(s): hvg.hu
- Fieldwork period: 2–7 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.30%