Opinion Poll by Publicus Research, 9–14 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 44.9% | 48.8% | 46.7–50.8% | 46.2–51.4% | 45.7–51.9% | 44.7–52.8% |
| MSZP | 25.6% | 17.9% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.0–20.0% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
| Jobbik | 20.2% | 16.9% | 15.5–18.5% | 15.1–19.0% | 14.8–19.4% | 14.1–20.2% |
| LMP | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| DK | 25.6% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Együtt | 25.6% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| MKKP | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| MM | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| MLP | 25.6% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 154 | 151–157 | 150–158 | 150–159 | 149–159 |
| MSZP | 29 | 18 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| Jobbik | 23 | 17 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| LMP | 5 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| DK | 4 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Együtt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MKKP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MLP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 150 | 4% | 98% | |
| 151 | 12% | 94% | |
| 152 | 9% | 82% | |
| 153 | 16% | 73% | |
| 154 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 155 | 16% | 42% | |
| 156 | 9% | 26% | |
| 157 | 11% | 18% | |
| 158 | 4% | 7% | |
| 159 | 2% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 16 | 15% | 96% | |
| 17 | 17% | 81% | |
| 18 | 19% | 64% | Median |
| 19 | 20% | 45% | |
| 20 | 15% | 24% | |
| 21 | 7% | 9% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 14 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 17% | 96% | |
| 16 | 25% | 78% | |
| 17 | 29% | 53% | Median |
| 18 | 17% | 24% | |
| 19 | 6% | 8% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 9% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 36% | 90% | |
| 8 | 37% | 55% | Median |
| 9 | 15% | 18% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 50% | |
| 2 | 0% | 50% | |
| 3 | 0% | 50% | |
| 4 | 2% | 50% | Last Result |
| 5 | 40% | 48% | |
| 6 | 8% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
MLP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 154 | 100% | 151–157 | 150–158 | 150–159 | 149–159 |
Fidesz–KDNP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 150 | 4% | 98% | |
| 151 | 12% | 94% | |
| 152 | 9% | 82% | |
| 153 | 16% | 73% | |
| 154 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 155 | 16% | 42% | |
| 156 | 9% | 26% | |
| 157 | 11% | 18% | |
| 158 | 4% | 7% | |
| 159 | 2% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Publicus Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–14 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1003
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 3.17%