Opinion Poll by Nézőpont Intézet, 3–19 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 44.9% 51.7% 49.7–53.7% 49.1–54.3% 48.6–54.8% 47.6–55.8%
Jobbik 20.2% 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.2–16.9% 12.8–17.3% 12.2–18.0%
MSZP 25.6% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
LMP 5.3% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
DK 25.6% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
MM 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
MKKP 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Együtt 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
MLP 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 158 156–161 155–161 155–161 154–162
Jobbik 23 15 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–18
MSZP 29 11 9–12 9–12 9–13 8–13
LMP 5 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
DK 4 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
MM 0 0 0 0 0 0
MKKP 0 0 0 0 0 0
Együtt 3 0 0 0 0 0
MLP 1 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–KDNP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0.1% 100%  
154 0.7% 99.8%  
155 5% 99.1%  
156 8% 94%  
157 21% 86%  
158 28% 66% Median
159 17% 38%  
160 10% 21%  
161 9% 11%  
162 1.1% 1.3%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0% 0%  

Jobbik

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 12% 98%  
14 28% 86%  
15 29% 58% Median
16 22% 29%  
17 6% 7%  
18 1.1% 1.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

MSZP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.0% 100%  
9 10% 99.0%  
10 37% 89%  
11 33% 52% Median
12 15% 19%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

LMP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100% Last Result
6 7% 99.7%  
7 33% 92%  
8 44% 59% Median
9 12% 15%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

DK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.2% 100%  
6 8% 99.8%  
7 32% 92%  
8 44% 60% Median
9 13% 16%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

MM

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

MKKP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Együtt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

MLP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 158 100% 156–161 155–161 155–161 154–162

Fidesz–KDNP

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0.1% 100%  
154 0.7% 99.8%  
155 5% 99.1%  
156 8% 94%  
157 21% 86%  
158 28% 66% Median
159 17% 38%  
160 10% 21%  
161 9% 11%  
162 1.1% 1.3%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations