Opinion Poll by Republikon Intézet for 24.hu, 10–23 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 44.9% | 48.9% | 46.9–50.9% | 46.3–51.5% | 45.8–52.0% | 44.8–53.0% |
| Jobbik | 20.2% | 19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.4% |
| MSZP | 25.6% | 17.0% | 15.5–18.6% | 15.1–19.1% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.1–20.3% |
| DK | 25.6% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| LMP | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Együtt | 25.6% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| MM | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| MKKP | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 158 | 154–161 | 153–162 | 153–162 | 151–164 |
| Jobbik | 23 | 20 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 16–25 |
| MSZP | 29 | 18 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 14–23 |
| DK | 4 | 5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| LMP | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Együtt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MKKP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 152 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 153 | 3% | 98% | |
| 154 | 6% | 95% | |
| 155 | 9% | 89% | |
| 156 | 12% | 80% | |
| 157 | 15% | 67% | |
| 158 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 159 | 12% | 38% | |
| 160 | 11% | 27% | |
| 161 | 9% | 16% | |
| 162 | 5% | 7% | |
| 163 | 2% | 2% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% |
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 12% | 96% | |
| 19 | 22% | 84% | |
| 20 | 28% | 63% | Median |
| 21 | 19% | 35% | |
| 22 | 11% | 16% | |
| 23 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 16 | 13% | 96% | |
| 17 | 21% | 82% | |
| 18 | 23% | 62% | Median |
| 19 | 15% | 38% | |
| 20 | 12% | 23% | |
| 21 | 8% | 11% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 49% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 51% | |
| 2 | 0% | 51% | |
| 3 | 0% | 51% | |
| 4 | 0% | 51% | Last Result |
| 5 | 34% | 51% | Median |
| 6 | 16% | 17% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 8% | |
| 5 | 7% | 8% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 158 | 100% | 154–161 | 153–162 | 153–162 | 151–164 |
Fidesz–KDNP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 152 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 153 | 3% | 98% | |
| 154 | 6% | 95% | |
| 155 | 9% | 89% | |
| 156 | 12% | 80% | |
| 157 | 15% | 67% | |
| 158 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 159 | 12% | 38% | |
| 160 | 11% | 27% | |
| 161 | 9% | 16% | |
| 162 | 5% | 7% | |
| 163 | 2% | 2% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Republikon Intézet
- Commissioner(s): 24.hu
- Fieldwork period: 10–23 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 4,194,304
- Error estimate: 2.12%