Opinion Poll by Iránytű Intézet for Magyar Nemzet, 21–24 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 44.9% 40.8% 38.8–42.8% 38.3–43.4% 37.8–43.9% 36.9–44.9%
Jobbik 20.2% 24.9% 23.2–26.7% 22.7–27.2% 22.3–27.7% 21.5–28.6%
MSZP 25.6% 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
LMP 5.3% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
DK 25.6% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
MM 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
MKKP 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Együtt 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
MLP 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 142 133–147 132–147 130–148 124–149
Jobbik 23 31 27–39 26–41 26–42 24–48
MSZP 29 12 10–13 10–13 10–14 9–16
LMP 5 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
DK 4 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
MM 0 0 0 0 0 0
MKKP 0 0 0 0 0 0
Együtt 3 0 0 0 0 0
MLP 1 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–KDNP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.2% 99.8%  
124 0.2% 99.7%  
125 0.2% 99.5%  
126 0.2% 99.2%  
127 0.2% 99.0%  
128 0.4% 98.8%  
129 0.5% 98%  
130 0.5% 98%  
131 1.3% 97%  
132 3% 96%  
133 3% 93% Last Result
134 2% 90%  
135 5% 88%  
136 2% 82%  
137 6% 80%  
138 8% 74%  
139 4% 66%  
140 3% 63%  
141 9% 60%  
142 3% 51% Median
143 6% 47%  
144 10% 41%  
145 11% 31%  
146 10% 21%  
147 7% 10%  
148 3% 4%  
149 0.8% 1.1%  
150 0.2% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Jobbik

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
24 0.5% 99.7%  
25 1.4% 99.2%  
26 8% 98%  
27 14% 90%  
28 7% 76%  
29 9% 68%  
30 7% 59%  
31 6% 52% Median
32 7% 46%  
33 1.5% 39%  
34 6% 38%  
35 8% 32%  
36 6% 25%  
37 3% 18%  
38 3% 15%  
39 2% 11%  
40 4% 10%  
41 2% 6%  
42 1.3% 4%  
43 0.4% 2%  
44 0.4% 2%  
45 0.3% 1.5%  
46 0.2% 1.2%  
47 0.2% 0.9%  
48 0.3% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

MSZP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.2% 100%  
10 12% 98.7%  
11 31% 87%  
12 34% 56% Median
13 17% 22%  
14 4% 5%  
15 0.8% 1.3%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

LMP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100% Last Result
6 7% 99.8%  
7 31% 93%  
8 41% 63% Median
9 18% 22%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

DK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8% Last Result
5 5% 99.8%  
6 42% 94%  
7 39% 53% Median
8 11% 14%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

MM

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

MKKP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Együtt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

MLP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 142 100% 133–147 132–147 130–148 124–149

Fidesz–KDNP

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.2% 99.8%  
124 0.2% 99.7%  
125 0.2% 99.5%  
126 0.2% 99.2%  
127 0.2% 99.0%  
128 0.4% 98.8%  
129 0.5% 98%  
130 0.5% 98%  
131 1.3% 97%  
132 3% 96%  
133 3% 93% Last Result
134 2% 90%  
135 5% 88%  
136 2% 82%  
137 6% 80%  
138 8% 74%  
139 4% 66%  
140 3% 63%  
141 9% 60%  
142 3% 51% Median
143 6% 47%  
144 10% 41%  
145 11% 31%  
146 10% 21%  
147 7% 10%  
148 3% 4%  
149 0.8% 1.1%  
150 0.2% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations