Opinion Poll by Medián for hvg.hu, 23–27 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 44.9% 52.8% 51.0–54.7% 50.4–55.2% 50.0–55.6% 49.1–56.5%
Jobbik 20.2% 16.0% 14.7–17.4% 14.3–17.8% 14.0–18.2% 13.4–18.9%
MSZP 25.6% 12.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.5–13.7% 10.3–14.0% 9.8–14.6%
LMP 5.3% 7.0% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.1%
DK 25.6% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.5% 4.4–8.0%
MKKP 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
MM 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Együtt 25.6% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
MLP 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 159 157–161 157–162 156–163 155–165
Jobbik 23 16 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
MSZP 29 12 11–13 10–13 10–14 9–14
LMP 5 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
DK 4 6 5–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
MKKP 0 0 0 0 0 0
MM 0 0 0 0 0 0
Együtt 3 0 0 0 0 0
MLP 1 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–KDNP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0.1% 100%  
155 0.5% 99.9%  
156 2% 99.4%  
157 9% 97%  
158 21% 88%  
159 26% 67% Median
160 25% 41%  
161 9% 16%  
162 3% 7%  
163 2% 4%  
164 1.3% 2%  
165 0.4% 0.5%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Jobbik

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.2% 99.9%  
14 9% 98.7%  
15 25% 90%  
16 39% 65% Median
17 18% 25%  
18 7% 8%  
19 1.1% 1.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

MSZP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.7% 100%  
10 9% 99.3%  
11 30% 91%  
12 39% 61% Median
13 19% 22%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

LMP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 4% 99.9% Last Result
6 36% 95%  
7 45% 59% Median
8 13% 14%  
9 1.1% 1.2%  
10 0% 0%  

DK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95% Last Result
5 35% 95%  
6 49% 60% Median
7 10% 11%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

MKKP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

MM

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Együtt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

MLP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 159 100% 157–161 157–162 156–163 155–165

Fidesz–KDNP

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0.1% 100%  
155 0.5% 99.9%  
156 2% 99.4%  
157 9% 97%  
158 21% 88%  
159 26% 67% Median
160 25% 41%  
161 9% 16%  
162 3% 7%  
163 2% 4%  
164 1.3% 2%  
165 0.4% 0.5%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations