Opinion Poll by Századvég Alapítvány, 1–31 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 44.9% | 51.0% | 49.0–53.0% | 48.4–53.6% | 47.9–54.1% | 46.9–55.1% |
| MSZP | 25.6% | 15.0% | 13.6–16.5% | 13.2–17.0% | 12.9–17.4% | 12.3–18.1% |
| Jobbik | 20.2% | 13.0% | 11.7–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–16.0% |
| LMP | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| DK | 25.6% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Együtt | 25.6% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 155 | 153–157 | 152–158 | 152–159 | 150–160 |
| MSZP | 29 | 14 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–18 |
| Jobbik | 23 | 12 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| LMP | 5 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| DK | 4 | 5 | 4–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Együtt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 152 | 5% | 98% | |
| 153 | 13% | 93% | |
| 154 | 21% | 80% | |
| 155 | 23% | 58% | Median |
| 156 | 18% | 35% | |
| 157 | 10% | 17% | |
| 158 | 4% | 7% | |
| 159 | 2% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 12 | 6% | 99.3% | |
| 13 | 23% | 93% | |
| 14 | 34% | 70% | Median |
| 15 | 24% | 35% | |
| 16 | 9% | 11% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 22% | 95% | |
| 12 | 37% | 73% | Median |
| 13 | 26% | 37% | |
| 14 | 9% | 11% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 13% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 6 | 44% | 87% | Median |
| 7 | 35% | 43% | |
| 8 | 7% | 7% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 92% | |
| 2 | 0% | 92% | |
| 3 | 0% | 92% | |
| 4 | 4% | 92% | Last Result |
| 5 | 45% | 89% | Median |
| 6 | 37% | 44% | |
| 7 | 7% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 155 | 100% | 153–157 | 152–158 | 152–159 | 150–160 |
Fidesz–KDNP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 152 | 5% | 98% | |
| 153 | 13% | 93% | |
| 154 | 21% | 80% | |
| 155 | 23% | 58% | Median |
| 156 | 18% | 35% | |
| 157 | 10% | 17% | |
| 158 | 4% | 7% | |
| 159 | 2% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Századvég Alapítvány
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–31 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.53%