Opinion Poll by Publicus Research, 28 March–3 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 44.9% 44.6% 42.6–46.7% 42.1–47.2% 41.6–47.7% 40.6–48.7%
Jobbik 20.2% 19.9% 18.3–21.6% 17.9–22.1% 17.5–22.5% 16.8–23.3%
MSZP 25.6% 18.9% 17.4–20.5% 16.9–21.0% 16.6–21.4% 15.9–22.3%
LMP 5.3% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
DK 25.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
MM 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Együtt 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
MLP 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
MKKP 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 150 146–153 145–153 144–154 142–156
Jobbik 23 20 18–24 18–25 17–25 16–27
MSZP 29 20 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–24
LMP 5 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
DK 4 0 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
MM 0 0 0 0 0 0
Együtt 3 0 0 0 0 0
MLP 1 0 0 0 0 0
MKKP 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–KDNP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.6% 99.8%  
143 1.0% 99.2%  
144 2% 98%  
145 4% 96%  
146 6% 92%  
147 5% 86%  
148 10% 81%  
149 17% 71%  
150 15% 53% Median
151 13% 38%  
152 11% 25%  
153 10% 14%  
154 3% 5%  
155 1.4% 2%  
156 0.6% 0.8%  
157 0.2% 0.2%  
158 0% 0%  

Jobbik

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.5% 100%  
17 3% 99.4%  
18 14% 96%  
19 24% 82%  
20 19% 58% Median
21 13% 39%  
22 7% 25%  
23 6% 18% Last Result
24 7% 12%  
25 3% 5%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

MSZP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 2% 99.6%  
17 4% 98%  
18 10% 94%  
19 28% 84%  
20 26% 56% Median
21 19% 30%  
22 8% 11%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.4% 0.9%  
25 0.2% 0.4%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

LMP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 7% 99.6% Last Result
6 36% 93%  
7 40% 56% Median
8 14% 17%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

DK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Median
1 0% 50%  
2 0% 50%  
3 0% 50%  
4 0.7% 50% Last Result
5 40% 49%  
6 8% 9%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

MM

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Együtt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

MLP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

MKKP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 150 100% 146–153 145–153 144–154 142–156

Fidesz–KDNP

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.6% 99.8%  
143 1.0% 99.2%  
144 2% 98%  
145 4% 96%  
146 6% 92%  
147 5% 86%  
148 10% 81%  
149 17% 71%  
150 15% 53% Median
151 13% 38%  
152 11% 25%  
153 10% 14%  
154 3% 5%  
155 1.4% 2%  
156 0.6% 0.8%  
157 0.2% 0.2%  
158 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations