Opinion Poll by Demopolis for La7, 24–25 June 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.0% | 27.7–30.3% | 27.4–30.7% | 27.0–31.0% | 26.4–31.7% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.8–26.3% | 23.4–26.6% | 23.2–26.9% | 22.6–27.6% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.2% | 9.4–11.1% | 9.1–11.4% | 8.9–11.6% | 8.6–12.1% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.3% | 8.5–10.2% | 8.3–10.4% | 8.1–10.7% | 7.7–11.1% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7.9–9.6% | 7.7–9.8% | 7.5–10.0% | 7.2–10.5% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.1–4.2% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.7–4.8% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.7–3.8% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.5–4.1% | 2.3–4.4% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.6–3.4% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–3.0% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 25 | 24–26 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 22–27 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 24 | 32% | 92% | |
| 25 | 48% | 60% | Median |
| 26 | 11% | 13% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 21% | 97% | |
| 21 | 34% | 76% | Median |
| 22 | 34% | 43% | |
| 23 | 8% | 9% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 27% | 98% | |
| 9 | 57% | 71% | Median |
| 10 | 14% | 14% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 19% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 71% | 81% | Median |
| 8 | 9% | 10% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 54% | 98% | Median |
| 8 | 41% | 44% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 82% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 18% | |
| 2 | 0% | 18% | |
| 3 | 13% | 18% | |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 54% | 98% | Median |
| 8 | 41% | 44% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demopolis
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 24–25 June 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.22%