Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 12.8% | 11.4–14.4% | 11.0–14.9% | 10.6–15.3% | 9.9–16.1% |
| 3–8 December 2025 | SWG La7 |
13.0% | 11.8–14.3% | 11.5–14.7% | 11.2–15.0% | 10.7–15.7% |
| 4–5 December 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
13.4% | 12.0–15.1% | 11.6–15.5% | 11.2–16.0% | 10.6–16.8% |
| 2–3 December 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.8% | 11.3–14.4% | 10.9–14.8% | 10.6–15.3% | 10.0–16.1% |
| 1–2 December 2025 | EMG | 13.4% | 12.1–14.9% | 11.7–15.3% | 11.4–15.7% | 10.8–16.4% |
| 1–2 December 2025 | Demopolis La7 |
12.5% | 11.6–13.5% | 11.3–13.8% | 11.1–14.0% | 10.7–14.5% |
| 26 November–1 December 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.7% | 11.5–14.0% | 11.2–14.4% | 10.9–14.7% | 10.4–15.3% |
| 25–27 November 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.2% | 11.3–13.1% | 11.1–13.4% | 10.9–13.6% | 10.5–14.1% |
| 26–27 November 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.1–14.3% |
| 20–27 November 2025 | Ixè | 13.0% | 11.7–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–16.0% |
| 24–27 November 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
13.5% | 12.2–15.0% | 11.8–15.4% | 11.5–15.8% | 10.9–16.5% |
| 25–26 November 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.6% | 11.2–14.3% | 10.8–14.7% | 10.5–15.1% | 9.9–15.9% |
| 12–26 November 2025 | EMG | 13.3% | 12.0–14.8% | 11.6–15.2% | 11.3–15.6% | 10.7–16.3% |
| 19–24 November 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.5% | 11.3–13.8% | 11.0–14.2% | 10.7–14.5% | 10.2–15.2% |
| 18–20 November 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.3% | 11.5–13.2% | 11.3–13.4% | 11.1–13.6% | 10.7–14.1% |
| 12–17 November 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.8% | 11.7–14.2% | 11.3–14.5% | 11.1–14.9% | 10.5–15.5% |
| 11–13 November 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.0% | 11.2–12.9% | 11.0–13.1% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.4–13.7% |
| 29 October–13 November 2025 | EMG | 13.3% | 12.0–14.8% | 11.6–15.2% | 11.3–15.6% | 10.7–16.3% |
| 11–12 November 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.9% | 11.5–14.5% | 11.1–15.0% | 10.7–15.4% | 10.1–16.2% |
| 5–10 November 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.8% | 11.7–14.2% | 11.3–14.5% | 11.1–14.9% | 10.5–15.5% |
| 4–6 November 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.2% | 11.4–13.1% | 11.2–13.4% | 11.0–13.6% | 10.6–14.0% |
| 4–6 November 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.1–14.3% |
| 4–5 November 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.8% | 11.3–14.4% | 10.9–14.8% | 10.6–15.3% | 10.0–16.1% |
| 29 October–3 November 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.6% | 11.4–13.9% | 11.1–14.3% | 10.8–14.6% | 10.3–15.2% |
| 30 October–2 November 2025 | BiDiMedia | 12.5% | 11.2–13.9% | 10.9–14.3% | 10.6–14.7% | 10.0–15.4% |
| 30–31 October 2025 | YouTrend Sky TG24 |
13.6% | 12.2–15.3% | 11.8–15.8% | 11.4–16.2% | 10.8–17.0% |
| 28–30 October 2025 | Termometro Politico | 11.9% | 11.2–12.7% | 11.0–12.9% | 10.8–13.1% | 10.5–13.5% |
| 29–30 October 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.6% | 10.4–13.0% | 10.0–13.4% | 9.8–13.7% | 9.2–14.4% |
| 27–30 October 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
13.5% | 12.2–15.0% | 11.8–15.4% | 11.5–15.8% | 10.9–16.5% |
| 28–29 October 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.6% | 11.2–14.3% | 10.8–14.7% | 10.5–15.1% | 9.9–15.9% |
| 22–27 October 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.8% | 11.7–14.2% | 11.3–14.5% | 11.1–14.9% | 10.5–15.5% |
| 22–26 October 2025 | BiDiMedia | 12.3% | 11.1–13.7% | 10.7–14.1% | 10.4–14.5% | 9.8–15.2% |
| 21–23 October 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.1% | 11.4–12.9% | 11.2–13.1% | 11.0–13.3% | 10.6–13.7% |
| 22–23 October 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–22 October 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.9% | 11.5–14.5% | 11.1–15.0% | 10.7–15.4% | 10.1–16.2% |
| 15–20 October 2025 | SWG La7 |
13.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–19 October 2025 | EMG | 13.1% | 11.8–14.6% | 11.4–15.0% | 11.1–15.3% | 10.6–16.1% |
| 15–19 October 2025 | BiDiMedia | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–16 October 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–15 October 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
13.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–15 October 2025 | EMG | 13.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–14 October 2025 | Demopolis La7 |
12.4% | 11.4–13.5% | 11.1–13.9% | 10.8–14.1% | 10.4–14.7% |
| 8–13 October 2025 | SWG La7 |
13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–9 October 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–8 October 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
13.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–6 October 2025 | SWG La7 |
13.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–5 October 2025 | BiDiMedia | 13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–3 October 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
12.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2 October 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17 September–1 October 2025 | EMG | 13.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–29 September 2025 | SWG La7 |
13.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–26 September 2025 | Ixè | 14.1% | 12.8–15.6% | 12.4–16.0% | 12.1–16.4% | 11.5–17.1% |
| 23–25 September 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–25 September 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
12.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–22 September 2025 | SWG La7 |
13.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–22 September 2025 | BiDiMedia | 12.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–18 September 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–18 September 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–18 September 2025 | Demos & Pi La Repubblica |
13.2% | 11.9–14.7% | 11.6–15.1% | 11.3–15.5% | 10.7–16.2% |
| 16–17 September 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
13.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–15 September 2025 | SWG La7 |
13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–15 September 2025 | BiDiMedia | 12.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–11 September 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–11 September 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–10 September 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
13.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–8 September 2025 | SWG La7 |
13.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–5 September 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
13.5% | 12.1–15.2% | 11.7–15.7% | 11.3–16.1% | 10.7–16.9% |
| 2–4 September 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–4 September 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
12.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27 August–1 September 2025 | SWG La7 |
13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–25 August 2025 | BiDiMedia | 12.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–7 August 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30–31 July 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 31 July 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28–30 July 2025 | Demopolis | 12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–29 July 2025 | Winpoll | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–28 July 2025 | SWG La7 |
13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–24 July 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–24 July 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
14.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–21 July 2025 | SWG La7 |
13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–17 July 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–17 July 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
12.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–17 July 2025 | SWG | 13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–14 July 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–14 July 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
12.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–10 July 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–10 July 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–7 July 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–3 July 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–3 July 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–30 June 2025 | Winpoll | 11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–30 June 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–27 June 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–26 June 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–26 June 2025 | Ixè | 13.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–26 June 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–26 June 2025 | Demopolis La7 |
12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–23 June 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–19 June 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–16 June 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–13 June 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–12 June 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–11 June 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–9 June 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6 June 2025 | EMG Rai 3 |
12.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–5 June 2025 | BiDiMedia | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–4 June 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3 June 2025 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28 May–2 June 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 May 2025 | EMG Rai 3 |
11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–29 May 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
14.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–28 May 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27 May 2025 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
12.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–26 May 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–22 May 2025 | Termometro Politico | 12.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22 May 2025 | Demopolis | 12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–21 May 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–19 May 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–15 May 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
12.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–15 May 2025 | Demos & Pi La Repubblica |
12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–14 May 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13 May 2025 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
12.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–12 May 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–8 May 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 April–5 May 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 April 2025 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 29–30 April 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 April 2025 | Demopolis | 11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28–29 April 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
12.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–28 April 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–24 April 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–24 April 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
13.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–23 April 2025 | Ixè | 13.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–23 April 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–21 April 2025 | SWG | 12.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–17 April 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16 April 2025 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–14 April 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–10 April 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–9 April 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8 April 2025 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–7 April 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–4 April 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–3 April 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 April 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–31 March 2025 | SWG La7 |
11.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–27 March 2025 | Termometro Politico | 11.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–27 March 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27 March 2025 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–27 March 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
13.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–26 March 2025 | Winpoll Scenari Politici |
11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–26 March 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–26 March 2025 | Demopolis La7 |
11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–25 March 2025 | Piepoli | 12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–24 March 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23 March 2025 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
11.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22 March 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–20 March 2025 | Termometro Politico | 11.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–19 March 2025 | Piepoli | 12.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–19 March 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18 March 2025 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
11.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–17 March 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15 March 2025 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
11.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–13 March 2025 | Termometro Politico | 11.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–13 March 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11 March 2025 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–10 March 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8 March 2025 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7 March 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–7 March 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–6 March 2025 | Termometro Politico | 11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–6 March 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6 March 2025 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5 March 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26 February–3 March 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1 March 2025 | Winpoll | 10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28 February 2025 | EMG Rai 3 |
11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–27 February 2025 | Termometro Politico | 11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–27 February 2025 | Tecnè | 11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–27 February 2025 | Ixè | 12.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–27 February 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
13.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–26 February 2025 | Winpoll | 10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–26 February 2025 | Euromedia La7 |
11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–26 February 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–25 February 2025 | Piepoli | 11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25 February 2025 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–24 February 2025 | SWG La7 |
12.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–24 February 2025 | BiDiMedia | 11.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–20 February 2025 | Termometro Politico | 11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–20 February 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–20 February 2025 | BiDiMedia | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–19 February 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–19 February 2025 | EMG Rai 3 |
11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–17 February 2025 | SWG La7 |
11.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–16 February 2025 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–14 February 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–14 February 2025 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–14 February 2025 | Demos & Pi La Repubblica |
11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–14 February 2025 | Demos La Repubblica |
11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–13 February 2025 | Termometro Politico | 11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–13 February 2025 | EMG | 11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–12 February 2025 | Piepoli | 11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–10 February 2025 | SWG | 11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–7 February 2025 | Tecnè | 10.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–7 February 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–6 February 2025 | Termometro Politico | 11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–5 February 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–5 February 2025 | EMG | 11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3 February 2025 | SWG La7 |
11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–3 February 2025 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 29–31 January 2025 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28–30 January 2025 | Ipsos | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28–29 January 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
11.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–28 January 2025 | Demopolis | 11.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–27 January 2025 | SWG La7 |
11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–24 January 2025 | Tecnè | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–22 January 2025 | EMG | 11.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–15 January 2025 | EMG | 10.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–13 January 2025 | SWG La7 |
11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–10 January 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
10.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–10 January 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–9 January 2025 | Termometro Politico | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–8 January 2025 | Eumetra | 11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–6 January 2025 | SWG La7 |
11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–23 December 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–20 December 2024 | Winpoll | 10.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–20 December 2024 | Tecnè | 10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–20 December 2024 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–19 December 2024 | Termometro Politico | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–16 December 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–13 December 2024 | Tecnè | 10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–13 December 2024 | Demopolis | 11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–12 December 2024 | Termometro Politico | 10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–11 December 2024 | Ixè | 12.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–11 December 2024 | Eumetra La7 |
11.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–9 December 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–6 December 2024 | Tecnè | 10.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–6 December 2024 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–5 December 2024 | Termometro Politico | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–5 December 2024 | BiDiMedia | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–4 December 2024 | Eumetra La7 |
11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2 December 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28–29 November 2024 | Tecnè | 10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–28 November 2024 | Winpoll | 10.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–28 November 2024 | Termometro Politico | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28 November 2024 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–25 November 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25 November 2024 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–22 November 2024 | Tecnè | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–21 November 2024 | Termometro Politico | 10.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–19 November 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–15 November 2024 | Tecnè | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–15 November 2024 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
11.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–14 November 2024 | Termometro Politico | 10.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–12 November 2024 | Demopolis | 11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–11 November 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–8 November 2024 | Tecnè | 10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–7 November 2024 | Termometro Politico | 10.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4 November 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–4 November 2024 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
11.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30–31 October 2024 | Termometro Politico | 10.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30–31 October 2024 | Tecnè | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–28 October 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–26 October 2024 | Tecnè | 10.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–24 October 2024 | Termometro Politico | 10.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–23 October 2024 | Eumetra La7 |
11.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–18 October 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
10.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–17 October 2024 | Termometro Politico | 10.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–16 October 2024 | Eumetra | 11.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–14 October 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14 October 2024 | Euromedia | 11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–11 October 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
10.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–10 October 2024 | Termometro Politico | 10.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–9 October 2024 | Eumetra La7 |
11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–9 October 2024 | EMG Rai 3 |
12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–7 October 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–4 October 2024 | Tecnè | 10.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–3 October 2024 | Termometro Politico | 10.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 October 2024 | Eumetra | 11.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–30 September 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–27 September 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–26 September 2024 | Termometro Politico | 10.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25 September 2024 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
10.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–25 September 2024 | Eumetra La7 |
11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–23 September 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–20 September 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–19 September 2024 | Termometro Politico | 9.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19 September 2024 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–18 September 2024 | Eumetra La7 |
11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–16 September 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–13 September 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–12 September 2024 | Termometro Politico | 10.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–12 September 2024 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
13.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–11 September 2024 | Piepoli | 11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–11 September 2024 | Ixè | 11.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–11 September 2024 | Eumetra La7 |
11.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10 September 2024 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
10.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–9 September 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–7 September 2024 | BiDiMedia | 10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–6 September 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
10.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2 September 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 29–30 August 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28–29 August 2024 | Termometro Politico | 9.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28–29 August 2024 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
11.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–22 August 2024 | Termometro Politico | 10.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–16 August 2024 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3 August 2024 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–29 July 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–26 July 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
9.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–25 July 2024 | Termometro Politico | 9.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–25 July 2024 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25 July 2024 | Euromedia | 10.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–24 July 2024 | Piepoli | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–22 July 2024 | SWG La7 |
11.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21 July 2024 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
10.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–19 July 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
9.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–18 July 2024 | Termometro Politico | 9.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–18 July 2024 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
10.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–15 July 2024 | SWG La7 |
10.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–12 July 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
9.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–11 July 2024 | Termometro Politico | 9.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–8 July 2024 | SWG La7 |
10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–5 July 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
9.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–4 July 2024 | Termometro Politico | 9.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1 July 2024 | SWG La7 |
10.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–28 June 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
9.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–27 June 2024 | Termometro Politico | 9.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–27 June 2024 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
9.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–27 June 2024 | Ipsos | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26 June 2024 | Euromedia La Stampa |
9.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–25 June 2024 | Demopolis La7 |
10.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–24 June 2024 | SWG La7 |
10.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–21 June 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
9.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–17 June 2024 | SWG La7 |
9.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–13 June 2024 | Termometro Politico | 9.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 10% | 98% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 28% | 87% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 32% | 60% | Median |
| 13.5–14.5% | 19% | 28% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 7% | 8% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 11 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| 3–8 December 2025 | SWG La7 |
11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| 4–5 December 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| 2–3 December 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| 1–2 December 2025 | EMG | 12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
| 1–2 December 2025 | Demopolis La7 |
10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 |
| 26 November–1 December 2025 | SWG La7 |
11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| 25–27 November 2025 | Termometro Politico | 10 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| 26–27 November 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| 20–27 November 2025 | Ixè | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 |
| 24–27 November 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
11 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| 25–26 November 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| 12–26 November 2025 | EMG | 13 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 |
| 19–24 November 2025 | SWG La7 |
11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| 18–20 November 2025 | Termometro Politico | 11 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| 12–17 November 2025 | SWG La7 |
11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| 11–13 November 2025 | Termometro Politico | 10 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| 29 October–13 November 2025 | EMG | 12 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
| 11–12 November 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| 5–10 November 2025 | SWG La7 |
11 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 |
| 4–6 November 2025 | Termometro Politico | 10 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| 4–6 November 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| 4–5 November 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| 29 October–3 November 2025 | SWG La7 |
11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| 30 October–2 November 2025 | BiDiMedia | 10 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| 30–31 October 2025 | YouTrend Sky TG24 |
11 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| 28–30 October 2025 | Termometro Politico | 10 | 10–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| 29–30 October 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| 27–30 October 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| 28–29 October 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
10 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| 22–27 October 2025 | SWG La7 |
11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| 22–26 October 2025 | BiDiMedia | 10 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 |
| 21–23 October 2025 | Termometro Politico | 10 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–12 |
| 22–23 October 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 21–22 October 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| 15–20 October 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 15–19 October 2025 | EMG | 11 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 9–14 |
| 15–19 October 2025 | BiDiMedia | |||||
| 14–16 October 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 14–15 October 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 1–15 October 2025 | EMG | |||||
| 13–14 October 2025 | Demopolis La7 |
10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–12 |
| 8–13 October 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 7–9 October 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 7–8 October 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 1–6 October 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 2–5 October 2025 | BiDiMedia | |||||
| 2–3 October 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 2 October 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 17 September–1 October 2025 | EMG | |||||
| 24–29 September 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 22–26 September 2025 | Ixè | 12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 |
| 23–25 September 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 24–25 September 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 17–22 September 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 18–22 September 2025 | BiDiMedia | |||||
| 16–18 September 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 17–18 September 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 15–18 September 2025 | Demos & Pi La Repubblica |
11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| 16–17 September 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 10–15 September 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 10–15 September 2025 | BiDiMedia | |||||
| 9–11 September 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 10–11 September 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 9–10 September 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 3–8 September 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 3–5 September 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| 2–4 September 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 3–4 September 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 27 August–1 September 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 23–25 August 2025 | BiDiMedia | |||||
| 5–7 August 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 30–31 July 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 31 July 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
|||||
| 28–30 July 2025 | Demopolis | |||||
| 21–29 July 2025 | Winpoll | |||||
| 23–28 July 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 22–24 July 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 21–24 July 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
|||||
| 16–21 July 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 15–17 July 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 16–17 July 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 15–17 July 2025 | SWG | |||||
| 9–14 July 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 11–14 July 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
|||||
| 8–10 July 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 9–10 July 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 2–7 July 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 1–3 July 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 2–3 July 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 19–30 June 2025 | Winpoll | |||||
| 25–30 June 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 24–27 June 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 25–26 June 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 20–26 June 2025 | Ixè | |||||
| 24–26 June 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
|||||
| 25–26 June 2025 | Demopolis La7 |
|||||
| 18–23 June 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 17–19 June 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 11–16 June 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 12–13 June 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
|||||
| 10–12 June 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 10–11 June 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 4–9 June 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 6 June 2025 | EMG Rai 3 |
|||||
| 1–5 June 2025 | BiDiMedia | |||||
| 3–4 June 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 3 June 2025 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
|||||
| 28 May–2 June 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 30 May 2025 | EMG Rai 3 |
|||||
| 27–29 May 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
|||||
| 27–28 May 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 27 May 2025 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
|||||
| 21–26 May 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 21–22 May 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 22 May 2025 | Demopolis | |||||
| 20–21 May 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 14–19 May 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 14–15 May 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 14–15 May 2025 | Demos & Pi La Repubblica |
|||||
| 13–14 May 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 13 May 2025 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
|||||
| 7–12 May 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 7–8 May 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 30 April–5 May 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 30 April 2025 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
|||||
| 29–30 April 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 30 April 2025 | Demopolis | |||||
| 28–29 April 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 23–28 April 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 22–24 April 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 22–24 April 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
|||||
| 17–23 April 2025 | Ixè | |||||
| 22–23 April 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 16–21 April 2025 | SWG | |||||
| 16–17 April 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 16 April 2025 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
|||||
| 9–14 April 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 9–10 April 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 8–9 April 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 8 April 2025 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
|||||
| 2–7 April 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 2–4 April 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
|||||
| 2–3 April 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 1–2 April 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 26–31 March 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 26–27 March 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 26–27 March 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 27 March 2025 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
|||||
| 25–27 March 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
|||||
| 17–26 March 2025 | Winpoll Scenari Politici |
|||||
| 13–26 March 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
|||||
| 25–26 March 2025 | Demopolis La7 |
|||||
| 24–25 March 2025 | Piepoli | |||||
| 19–24 March 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 23 March 2025 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
|||||
| 22 March 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 19–20 March 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 17–19 March 2025 | Piepoli | |||||
| 18–19 March 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 18 March 2025 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
|||||
| 12–17 March 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 15 March 2025 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
|||||
| 12–13 March 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 12–13 March 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 11 March 2025 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
|||||
| 5–10 March 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 8 March 2025 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
|||||
| 7 March 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 6–7 March 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
|||||
| 4–6 March 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 5–6 March 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 6 March 2025 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
|||||
| 5 March 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 26 February–3 March 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 1 March 2025 | Winpoll | |||||
| 28 February 2025 | EMG Rai 3 |
|||||
| 26–27 February 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 26–27 February 2025 | Tecnè | |||||
| 21–27 February 2025 | Ixè | |||||
| 25–27 February 2025 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
|||||
| 17–26 February 2025 | Winpoll | |||||
| 25–26 February 2025 | Euromedia La7 |
|||||
| 25–26 February 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 24–25 February 2025 | Piepoli | |||||
| 25 February 2025 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
|||||
| 19–24 February 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 22–24 February 2025 | BiDiMedia | |||||
| 18–20 February 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 19–20 February 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 17–20 February 2025 | BiDiMedia | |||||
| 18–19 February 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 18–19 February 2025 | EMG Rai 3 |
|||||
| 12–17 February 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 14–16 February 2025 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
|||||
| 13–14 February 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 12–14 February 2025 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
|||||
| 10–14 February 2025 | Demos & Pi La Repubblica |
|||||
| 10–14 February 2025 | Demos La Repubblica |
|||||
| 12–13 February 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 12–13 February 2025 | EMG | |||||
| 9–12 February 2025 | Piepoli | |||||
| 5–10 February 2025 | SWG | |||||
| 6–7 February 2025 | Tecnè | |||||
| 6–7 February 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
|||||
| 4–6 February 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 4–5 February 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 4–5 February 2025 | EMG | |||||
| 3 February 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 2–3 February 2025 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
|||||
| 29–31 January 2025 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
|||||
| 28–30 January 2025 | Ipsos | |||||
| 28–29 January 2025 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 27–28 January 2025 | Demopolis | |||||
| 22–27 January 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 23–24 January 2025 | Tecnè | |||||
| 21–22 January 2025 | EMG | |||||
| 14–15 January 2025 | EMG | |||||
| 8–13 January 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 9–10 January 2025 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 9–10 January 2025 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
|||||
| 8–9 January 2025 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 7–8 January 2025 | Eumetra | |||||
| 2–6 January 2025 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 18–23 December 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 12–20 December 2024 | Winpoll | |||||
| 19–20 December 2024 | Tecnè | |||||
| 18–20 December 2024 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
|||||
| 18–19 December 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 11–16 December 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 12–13 December 2024 | Tecnè | |||||
| 12–13 December 2024 | Demopolis | |||||
| 11–12 December 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 6–11 December 2024 | Ixè | |||||
| 10–11 December 2024 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 4–9 December 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 5–6 December 2024 | Tecnè | |||||
| 5–6 December 2024 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
|||||
| 4–5 December 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 3–5 December 2024 | BiDiMedia | |||||
| 3–4 December 2024 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 2 December 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 28–29 November 2024 | Tecnè | |||||
| 21–28 November 2024 | Winpoll | |||||
| 27–28 November 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 28 November 2024 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
|||||
| 20–25 November 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 25 November 2024 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
|||||
| 21–22 November 2024 | Tecnè | |||||
| 20–21 November 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 13–19 November 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 14–15 November 2024 | Tecnè | |||||
| 13–15 November 2024 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
|||||
| 13–14 November 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 11–12 November 2024 | Demopolis | |||||
| 6–11 November 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 7–8 November 2024 | Tecnè | |||||
| 6–7 November 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 4 November 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 1–4 November 2024 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
|||||
| 30–31 October 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 30–31 October 2024 | Tecnè | |||||
| 23–28 October 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 25–26 October 2024 | Tecnè | |||||
| 23–24 October 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 22–23 October 2024 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 17–18 October 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 16–17 October 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 15–16 October 2024 | Eumetra | |||||
| 9–14 October 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 14 October 2024 | Euromedia | |||||
| 10–11 October 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 9–10 October 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 8–9 October 2024 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 8–9 October 2024 | EMG Rai 3 |
|||||
| 2–7 October 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 3–4 October 2024 | Tecnè | |||||
| 2–3 October 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 1–2 October 2024 | Eumetra | |||||
| 25–30 September 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 26–27 September 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 25–26 September 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 25 September 2024 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
|||||
| 24–25 September 2024 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 18–23 September 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 19–20 September 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 18–19 September 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 19 September 2024 | Noto Sondaggi Rai 1 |
|||||
| 17–18 September 2024 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 11–16 September 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 12–13 September 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 11–12 September 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 10–12 September 2024 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
|||||
| 9–11 September 2024 | Piepoli | |||||
| 9–11 September 2024 | Ixè | |||||
| 10–11 September 2024 | Eumetra La7 |
|||||
| 10 September 2024 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
|||||
| 4–9 September 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 5–7 September 2024 | BiDiMedia | |||||
| 5–6 September 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 2 September 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 29–30 August 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 28–29 August 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 28–29 August 2024 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
|||||
| 21–22 August 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 5–16 August 2024 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
|||||
| 3 August 2024 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
|||||
| 24–29 July 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 25–26 July 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 24–25 July 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 23–25 July 2024 | Ipsos Corriere della Sera |
|||||
| 25 July 2024 | Euromedia | |||||
| 22–24 July 2024 | Piepoli | |||||
| 17–22 July 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 21 July 2024 | Lab2101 Affari Italiani |
|||||
| 18–19 July 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 16–18 July 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 17–18 July 2024 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
|||||
| 10–15 July 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 11–12 July 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 9–11 July 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 3–8 July 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 4–5 July 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 3–4 July 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 1 July 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 27–28 June 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 26–27 June 2024 | Termometro Politico | |||||
| 25–27 June 2024 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
|||||
| 25–27 June 2024 | Ipsos | |||||
| 26 June 2024 | Euromedia La Stampa |
|||||
| 24–25 June 2024 | Demopolis La7 |
|||||
| 19–24 June 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 20–21 June 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
|||||
| 12–17 June 2024 | SWG La7 |
|||||
| 12–13 June 2024 | Termometro Politico |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 7% | 98% | |
| 10 | 34% | 91% | |
| 11 | 35% | 57% | Median |
| 12 | 16% | 21% | |
| 13 | 5% | 6% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |