Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 25–27 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.1% 26.3–30.0% 25.8–30.5% 25.4–31.0% 24.6–31.9%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.8% 21.2–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.5% 19.5–26.4%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.5% 11.2–13.9% 10.9–14.3% 10.6–14.7% 10.0–15.4%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.4–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.7–11.4%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Libertà (*) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 25 23–26 22–26 22–27 21–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 20 18–21 17–22 16–22 16–23
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10–12 10–13 9–13 9–13
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Libertà (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.8% 99.7%  
22 7% 98.8%  
23 14% 92%  
24 23% 78%  
25 27% 55% Median
26 25% 28%  
27 2% 3%  
28 1.0% 1.2%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 4% 100%  
17 1.4% 96%  
18 13% 94%  
19 22% 81%  
20 24% 59% Median
21 26% 35%  
22 8% 9%  
23 0.4% 0.7%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 3% 99.7%  
10 47% 96% Median
11 22% 49%  
12 19% 27%  
13 8% 9%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 10% 99.9%  
7 42% 90% Median
8 32% 47%  
9 13% 15%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.8% 100%  
5 12% 99.2%  
6 32% 88%  
7 47% 56% Median
8 8% 9%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 23%  
2 0% 23%  
3 12% 23%  
4 11% 11%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Libertà (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Libertà (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–10

Lega Nord (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 10% 99.9%  
7 42% 90% Median
8 32% 47%  
9 13% 15%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations