Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 25–27 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.2% 27.2–31.3% 26.6–31.9% 26.2–32.4% 25.2–33.5%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 24.0% 22.1–26.0% 21.6–26.6% 21.2–27.1% 20.3–28.0%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 9.6% 8.4–11.0% 8.0–11.4% 7.7–11.8% 7.2–12.5%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.9% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8% 7.2–11.1% 6.6–11.8%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.1% 7.0–9.4% 6.6–9.8% 6.4–10.2% 5.9–10.9%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.7% 2.8–5.0% 2.6–5.3% 2.3–5.8%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.7% 2.8–5.0% 2.6–5.3% 2.3–5.8%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 1.9–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.6–3.8% 1.4–4.3%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 1.9–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.6–3.8% 1.4–4.3%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.9% 1.4–3.2% 1.3–3.4% 1.1–3.8%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%
Libertà (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.8%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 25 25–28 24–29 23–29 23–30
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 24 20–24 20–24 20–24 19–26
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 9 8–9 8–10 7–10 7–11
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–10
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Libertà (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 4% 99.8%  
24 5% 96%  
25 45% 91% Median
26 26% 46%  
27 5% 19%  
28 8% 14%  
29 5% 6%  
30 0.8% 0.9%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 1.0% 99.7%  
20 9% 98.6%  
21 11% 90%  
22 16% 79%  
23 9% 63%  
24 52% 54% Median
25 0.1% 1.2%  
26 1.0% 1.0%  
27 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 3% 99.9%  
8 31% 96%  
9 56% 65% Median
10 7% 9%  
11 1.1% 1.3%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 68% 99.5% Median
7 5% 31%  
8 22% 26%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 38% 96%  
7 43% 59% Median
8 9% 16%  
9 6% 7%  
10 1.4% 1.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 22%  
2 0% 22%  
3 0.3% 22%  
4 19% 21%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100% Last Result
1 0% 75%  
2 0% 75%  
3 4% 75%  
4 35% 71% Median
5 36% 36%  
6 0% 0%  

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.3%  
2 0% 1.3%  
3 0% 1.3%  
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Libertà (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Libertà (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 38% 96%  
7 43% 59% Median
8 9% 16%  
9 6% 7%  
10 1.4% 1.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations