Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 9–11 July 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.1% | 28.0–30.2% | 27.8–30.5% | 27.5–30.8% | 27.0–31.3% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 24.3% | 23.3–25.3% | 23.0–25.6% | 22.8–25.9% | 22.3–26.4% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 9.6% | 8.9–10.3% | 8.7–10.5% | 8.6–10.7% | 8.3–11.1% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.5% | 8.8–10.2% | 8.7–10.4% | 8.5–10.6% | 8.2–11.0% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.8% | 8.2–9.5% | 8.0–9.7% | 7.8–9.9% | 7.5–10.2% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.4–4.3% | 3.3–4.4% | 3.2–4.6% | 3.0–4.8% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.8–3.7% | 2.7–3.8% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.5–4.1% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.2–2.9% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.8–2.5% | 1.7–2.6% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.5–2.9% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.3–1.9% | 1.3–2.0% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.3% |
| Libertà (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.3% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.6% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 27 | 25–28 | 25–29 | 25–29 | 24–29 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 22 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–25 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Libertà (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 29% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 11% | 70% | |
| 27 | 41% | 59% | Median |
| 28 | 9% | 18% | |
| 29 | 9% | 9% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 25% | 98.8% | |
| 22 | 43% | 74% | Median |
| 23 | 18% | 30% | |
| 24 | 8% | 13% | |
| 25 | 4% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 8 | 40% | 99.4% | |
| 9 | 43% | 60% | Median |
| 10 | 16% | 16% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 33% | 98.5% | |
| 8 | 50% | 65% | Median |
| 9 | 15% | 15% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 21% | 100% | |
| 8 | 67% | 79% | Median |
| 9 | 12% | 13% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 56% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 44% | |
| 2 | 0% | 44% | |
| 3 | 3% | 44% | |
| 4 | 41% | 41% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Libertà (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Libertà (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 21% | 100% | |
| 8 | 67% | 79% | Median |
| 9 | 12% | 13% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Termometro Politico
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–11 July 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.14%