Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 17–18 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.5% 26.9–30.3% 26.4–30.7% 26.0–31.2% 25.3–32.0%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 23.8% 22.3–25.4% 21.8–25.9% 21.5–26.3% 20.8–27.1%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.5% 9.4–11.7% 9.1–12.0% 8.9–12.3% 8.4–13.0%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 9.3% 8.3–10.5% 8.0–10.8% 7.8–11.1% 7.3–11.7%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.6% 7.6–9.7% 7.3–10.0% 7.1–10.3% 6.7–10.9%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.6–4.7% 2.3–5.1%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.9% 2.4–3.6% 2.2–3.8% 2.1–4.0% 1.9–4.4%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.9–3.0% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.4–3.7%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.4%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.1–3.2%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.4%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 25 23–27 23–27 23–27 22–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 21 20–22 20–23 19–23 18–24
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 8–11 8–11 8–11 8–11
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 6–9
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 100%  
22 0.9% 99.7%  
23 40% 98.8%  
24 6% 59%  
25 16% 53% Median
26 19% 37%  
27 17% 18%  
28 0.9% 1.1%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.8%  
19 3% 99.2%  
20 33% 97%  
21 53% 64% Median
22 5% 11%  
23 5% 6%  
24 0.8% 0.9%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.5% 100%  
8 10% 99.5%  
9 14% 90%  
10 62% 76% Median
11 14% 14%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 23% 99.7%  
7 59% 76% Median
8 14% 17%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 33% 98%  
8 23% 65% Median
9 40% 41%  
10 1.1% 1.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 0.7% 12%  
4 11% 11%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.1% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 33% 98%  
8 23% 65% Median
9 40% 41%  
10 1.1% 1.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations