Opinion Poll by Tecnè for Agenzia Dire, 18–19 July 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.7% | 26.9–30.6% | 26.4–31.1% | 25.9–31.6% | 25.1–32.5% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 24.6% | 22.9–26.4% | 22.4–26.9% | 22.0–27.3% | 21.2–28.2% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 10.2% | 9.1–11.5% | 8.7–11.9% | 8.5–12.2% | 7.9–12.9% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 9.8% | 8.7–11.1% | 8.4–11.5% | 8.1–11.8% | 7.6–12.5% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.4–9.6% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.8–10.3% | 6.4–10.9% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 26 | 24–28 | 23–29 | 22–29 | 22–29 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 23 | 20–24 | 19–24 | 19–24 | 19–25 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 96% | |
| 24 | 12% | 93% | |
| 25 | 9% | 81% | |
| 26 | 31% | 72% | Median |
| 27 | 25% | 40% | |
| 28 | 10% | 16% | |
| 29 | 5% | 6% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 10% | 94% | |
| 21 | 9% | 84% | |
| 22 | 19% | 75% | |
| 23 | 37% | 56% | Median |
| 24 | 17% | 19% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 24% | 97% | |
| 8 | 34% | 74% | Median |
| 9 | 22% | 39% | |
| 10 | 15% | 18% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 33% | 95% | |
| 9 | 40% | 62% | Median |
| 10 | 16% | 22% | |
| 11 | 6% | 6% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 44% | 92% | Median |
| 8 | 38% | 48% | |
| 9 | 7% | 11% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 23% | |
| 2 | 0% | 23% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 23% | |
| 4 | 15% | 22% | |
| 5 | 6% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 21% | |
| 3 | 3% | 21% | |
| 4 | 18% | 19% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 44% | 92% | Median |
| 8 | 38% | 48% | |
| 9 | 7% | 11% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Tecnè
- Commissioner(s): Agenzia Dire
- Fieldwork period: 18–19 July 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.21%