Opinion Poll by Piepoli, 22–24 July 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.6% | 26.1–31.3% | 25.4–32.1% | 24.8–32.7% | 23.7–34.0% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.6% | 20.3–25.1% | 19.7–25.8% | 19.1–26.5% | 18.1–27.7% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.4–13.0% | 8.9–13.5% | 8.6–14.1% | 7.8–15.1% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.6% | 7.2–10.4% | 6.8–10.9% | 6.4–11.4% | 5.8–12.3% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 6.6–9.8% | 6.2–10.3% | 5.9–10.7% | 5.3–11.6% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.3% | 2.3–5.6% | 1.9–6.3% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.3% | 2.3–5.6% | 1.9–6.3% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 1.9–3.8% | 1.7–4.1% | 1.5–4.4% | 1.2–5.0% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 1.9–3.8% | 1.7–4.1% | 1.5–4.4% | 1.2–5.0% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.9% | 1.4–4.2% | 1.1–4.8% |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.7% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.2–1.8% | 0.1–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 25 | 23–28 | 22–30 | 21–30 | 20–31 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 18–23 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 7–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–9 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 22 | 4% | 96% | |
| 23 | 6% | 92% | |
| 24 | 13% | 86% | |
| 25 | 26% | 73% | Median |
| 26 | 10% | 47% | |
| 27 | 18% | 37% | |
| 28 | 10% | 19% | |
| 29 | 2% | 8% | |
| 30 | 6% | 7% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 18 | 9% | 93% | |
| 19 | 20% | 83% | |
| 20 | 21% | 64% | Median |
| 21 | 19% | 43% | |
| 22 | 7% | 23% | |
| 23 | 13% | 16% | |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 29% | 96% | |
| 9 | 17% | 67% | Median |
| 10 | 28% | 50% | |
| 11 | 14% | 21% | |
| 12 | 5% | 8% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 8% | 98% | |
| 6 | 27% | 90% | |
| 7 | 32% | 63% | Median |
| 8 | 25% | 31% | |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 15% | 95% | |
| 7 | 27% | 80% | |
| 8 | 41% | 53% | Median |
| 9 | 9% | 11% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 21% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 21% | |
| 4 | 18% | 20% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 64% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 36% | |
| 2 | 0% | 36% | |
| 3 | 2% | 36% | |
| 4 | 30% | 34% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 4 | 8% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 4 | 5% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 15% | 95% | |
| 7 | 27% | 80% | |
| 8 | 41% | 53% | Median |
| 9 | 9% | 11% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Piepoli
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 22–24 July 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 500
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 4.47%