Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 24–25 July 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.6% | 28.5–30.7% | 28.2–31.0% | 28.0–31.3% | 27.5–31.8% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 24.0% | 23.0–25.0% | 22.7–25.3% | 22.5–25.6% | 22.0–26.1% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 9.7% | 9.0–10.4% | 8.8–10.6% | 8.7–10.8% | 8.4–11.2% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.4% | 8.7–10.1% | 8.6–10.3% | 8.4–10.5% | 8.1–10.9% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.7–9.0% | 7.5–9.2% | 7.4–9.3% | 7.1–9.7% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.4–4.3% | 3.3–4.4% | 3.2–4.6% | 3.0–4.8% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.7–3.6% | 2.6–3.7% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–4.0% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.2–2.9% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.4–2.1% | 1.4–2.1% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.4% |
| Libertà (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.3% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.6% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 26 | 26–29 | 26–29 | 25–29 | 25–29 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 23 | 22–24 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–24 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Libertà (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 54% | 97% | Median |
| 27 | 14% | 42% | |
| 28 | 15% | 29% | |
| 29 | 14% | 14% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 6% | 98% | |
| 22 | 28% | 92% | |
| 23 | 40% | 64% | Median |
| 24 | 24% | 24% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 32% | 94% | |
| 10 | 62% | 62% | Median |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 56% | 98.5% | Median |
| 8 | 41% | 43% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 18% | 98.9% | |
| 8 | 75% | 81% | Median |
| 9 | 5% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 14% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 4 | 13% | 13% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Libertà (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Libertà (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 18% | 98.9% | |
| 8 | 75% | 81% | Median |
| 9 | 5% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Termometro Politico
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 24–25 July 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.85%