Opinion Poll by Ixè, 9–11 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 26.2–29.9% | 25.7–30.4% | 25.3–30.9% | 24.5–31.8% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 23.2% | 21.6–25.0% | 21.1–25.5% | 20.7–25.9% | 19.9–26.8% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.9% | 10.7–13.3% | 10.3–13.7% | 10.0–14.1% | 9.5–14.8% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.9% | 8.8–11.2% | 8.5–11.6% | 8.2–11.9% | 7.7–12.6% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 9.4% | 8.3–10.7% | 8.0–11.1% | 7.7–11.4% | 7.2–12.0% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–29 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 18–22 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 10% | 98% | |
| 23 | 21% | 89% | |
| 24 | 32% | 68% | Median |
| 25 | 25% | 36% | |
| 26 | 6% | 10% | |
| 27 | 3% | 5% | |
| 28 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 12% | 98.8% | |
| 19 | 17% | 87% | |
| 20 | 30% | 70% | Median |
| 21 | 22% | 40% | |
| 22 | 9% | 17% | |
| 23 | 7% | 8% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 17% | 98.8% | |
| 10 | 28% | 81% | |
| 11 | 43% | 53% | Median |
| 12 | 8% | 10% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 19% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 29% | 81% | |
| 8 | 36% | 52% | Median |
| 9 | 15% | 16% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 21% | 98% | |
| 8 | 43% | 76% | Median |
| 9 | 25% | 33% | |
| 10 | 8% | 9% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 28% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 72% | |
| 2 | 0% | 72% | |
| 3 | 15% | 72% | |
| 4 | 47% | 57% | Median |
| 5 | 10% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 14% | |
| 3 | 2% | 14% | |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 21% | 98% | |
| 8 | 43% | 76% | Median |
| 9 | 25% | 33% | |
| 10 | 8% | 9% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ixè
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–11 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.65%