Opinion Poll by Piepoli, 9–11 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.4% 25.9–31.1% 25.2–31.9% 24.6–32.5% 23.5–33.8%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.4% 20.1–24.9% 19.5–25.6% 19.0–26.3% 17.9–27.5%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.8% 10.1–13.8% 9.6–14.4% 9.3–14.9% 8.5–16.0%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.4% 7.0–10.2% 6.6–10.7% 6.3–11.2% 5.7–12.1%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.4% 7.0–10.2% 6.6–10.7% 6.3–11.2% 5.7–12.1%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.2% 2.4–4.5% 2.2–4.8% 2.0–5.1% 1.6–5.8%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.6% 1.8–4.9% 1.5–5.5%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–3.9% 1.0–4.5%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.4% 1.1–3.6% 0.9–4.2%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.4% 1.1–3.6% 0.9–4.2%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 1.4% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.6% 0.7–2.9% 0.5–3.4%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1% 0.4–2.3% 0.3–2.8%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.6% 0.2–1.8% 0.1–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 22–27 22–27 21–28 21–30
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 20 18–21 17–22 17–24 15–24
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 8–12 8–12 8–13 7–14
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–10
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 6–9 5–9 5–10 5–11
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.6%  
22 7% 96%  
23 35% 89%  
24 10% 54% Median
25 18% 44%  
26 12% 26%  
27 10% 15%  
28 2% 4%  
29 1.5% 2%  
30 0.6% 0.9%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 1.5% 99.3%  
17 7% 98%  
18 8% 91%  
19 12% 82%  
20 21% 70% Median
21 40% 49%  
22 4% 9%  
23 0.9% 5%  
24 4% 4%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 2% 100%  
8 11% 98%  
9 17% 88%  
10 12% 71%  
11 36% 58% Median
12 18% 22%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.3% 0.5%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 1.3% 99.9%  
5 14% 98.7%  
6 24% 84%  
7 26% 60% Median
8 31% 35%  
9 2% 4%  
10 1.4% 1.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 8% 99.9%  
6 8% 92%  
7 20% 84%  
8 44% 64% Median
9 17% 20%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 20%  
2 0% 20%  
3 3% 20%  
4 7% 16%  
5 9% 10%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 0.3% 13%  
4 11% 12%  
5 0.8% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.1% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.7%  
2 0% 0.7%  
3 0% 0.7%  
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 6–9 5–9 5–10 5–11

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 8% 99.9%  
6 8% 92%  
7 20% 84%  
8 44% 64% Median
9 17% 20%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations