Opinion Poll by Tecnè for Agenzia Dire, 12–13 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.0% | 26.9–31.1% | 26.4–31.7% | 25.9–32.2% | 25.0–33.3% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 23.6% | 21.8–25.7% | 21.3–26.2% | 20.8–26.7% | 19.9–27.7% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 10.9% | 9.6–12.4% | 9.2–12.9% | 8.9–13.2% | 8.3–14.0% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.7% | 9.4–12.3% | 9.1–12.7% | 8.8–13.1% | 8.2–13.9% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.2–9.7% | 6.9–10.1% | 6.6–10.5% | 6.1–11.2% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 2.9–4.7% | 2.7–5.0% | 2.6–5.2% | 2.3–5.7% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.1–4.1% | 2.0–4.3% | 1.7–4.8% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–4.2% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% | 0.9–3.5% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.5% | 1.2–2.8% | 1.1–3.0% | 0.9–3.4% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% | 0.2–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 25 | 23–27 | 23–29 | 22–29 | 21–30 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 17–24 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–11 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 23 | 9% | 96% | |
| 24 | 28% | 87% | |
| 25 | 13% | 59% | Median |
| 26 | 23% | 46% | |
| 27 | 13% | 23% | |
| 28 | 5% | 10% | |
| 29 | 4% | 5% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 20% | 98% | |
| 19 | 10% | 79% | |
| 20 | 21% | 69% | Median |
| 21 | 17% | 47% | |
| 22 | 13% | 31% | |
| 23 | 4% | 17% | |
| 24 | 13% | 13% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 12% | 98% | |
| 8 | 32% | 86% | |
| 9 | 27% | 54% | Median |
| 10 | 22% | 27% | |
| 11 | 5% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 17% | 98% | |
| 9 | 47% | 81% | Median |
| 10 | 29% | 34% | |
| 11 | 4% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 94% | |
| 7 | 42% | 86% | Median |
| 8 | 31% | 44% | |
| 9 | 12% | 12% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 72% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 28% | |
| 2 | 0% | 28% | |
| 3 | 5% | 28% | |
| 4 | 22% | 23% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 94% | |
| 7 | 42% | 86% | Median |
| 8 | 31% | 44% | |
| 9 | 12% | 12% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Tecnè
- Commissioner(s): Agenzia Dire
- Fieldwork period: 12–13 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 791
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 4.62%