Opinion Poll by Eumetra for La7, 17–18 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 30.0% | 28.0–32.1% | 27.4–32.8% | 26.9–33.3% | 26.0–34.3% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 23.0% | 21.2–25.0% | 20.7–25.6% | 20.3–26.1% | 19.4–27.1% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.8% | 10.5–13.4% | 10.1–13.9% | 9.8–14.3% | 9.2–15.0% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 7.9–10.5% | 7.6–10.9% | 7.3–11.3% | 6.8–12.0% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.3–9.9% | 7.0–10.3% | 6.7–10.6% | 6.2–11.3% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.2% | 2.2–5.7% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.4% | 1.7–4.9% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–4.1% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–4.1% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 1.0–2.9% | 0.9–3.3% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 27 | 25–29 | 24–30 | 23–30 | 22–31 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 24 | 4% | 96% | |
| 25 | 9% | 93% | |
| 26 | 15% | 83% | |
| 27 | 19% | 68% | Median |
| 28 | 32% | 49% | |
| 29 | 8% | 17% | |
| 30 | 7% | 9% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 4% | 98% | |
| 19 | 19% | 93% | |
| 20 | 30% | 75% | Median |
| 21 | 18% | 45% | |
| 22 | 19% | 26% | |
| 23 | 7% | 8% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 18% | 98% | |
| 10 | 28% | 80% | |
| 11 | 33% | 51% | Median |
| 12 | 15% | 18% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 30% | 97% | |
| 7 | 35% | 68% | Median |
| 8 | 25% | 33% | |
| 9 | 7% | 8% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 11% | 98% | |
| 7 | 50% | 88% | Median |
| 8 | 27% | 38% | |
| 9 | 10% | 11% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 73% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 27% | |
| 2 | 0% | 27% | |
| 3 | 2% | 27% | |
| 4 | 23% | 25% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 5% | 8% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 11% | 98% | |
| 7 | 50% | 88% | Median |
| 8 | 27% | 38% | |
| 9 | 10% | 11% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Eumetra
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 17–18 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 803
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.62%