Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 18–23 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 30.1% | 28.4–31.8% | 28.0–32.3% | 27.5–32.8% | 26.8–33.6% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.6% | 21.1–24.2% | 20.7–24.6% | 20.3–25.0% | 19.6–25.8% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.7% | 10.5–12.9% | 10.2–13.3% | 10.0–13.6% | 9.4–14.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.5–9.6% | 7.3–9.9% | 7.0–10.2% | 6.6–10.8% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.2% | 7.2–9.3% | 7.0–9.6% | 6.7–9.9% | 6.3–10.4% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.3–4.7% | 3.1–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.6% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.6% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.9–3.7% | 1.7–4.1% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.8–3.7% | 1.6–4.0% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.8–2.7% |
| Libertà (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 27 | 25–29 | 24–29 | 24–30 | 23–31 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Libertà (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 14% | 94% | |
| 26 | 22% | 80% | |
| 27 | 26% | 58% | Median |
| 28 | 18% | 32% | |
| 29 | 10% | 14% | |
| 30 | 3% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 6% | 96% | |
| 19 | 16% | 89% | |
| 20 | 31% | 73% | Median |
| 21 | 27% | 42% | |
| 22 | 10% | 15% | |
| 23 | 4% | 5% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 10% | 100% | |
| 9 | 9% | 90% | |
| 10 | 35% | 82% | Median |
| 11 | 35% | 47% | |
| 12 | 11% | 12% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 34% | 93% | |
| 7 | 39% | 58% | Median |
| 8 | 18% | 19% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 57% | 90% | Median |
| 8 | 27% | 33% | |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 41% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 59% | |
| 2 | 0% | 59% | |
| 3 | 5% | 59% | |
| 4 | 47% | 54% | Median |
| 5 | 7% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Libertà (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Libertà (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 57% | 90% | Median |
| 8 | 27% | 33% | |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 18–23 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.80%