Opinion Poll by Euromedia for Rai 1, 25 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 30.1% 28.1–32.3% 27.5–32.9% 27.0–33.4% 26.1–34.4%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 23.4% 21.5–25.4% 21.0–25.9% 20.6–26.4% 19.7–27.4%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.5% 9.2–12.0% 8.9–12.5% 8.6–12.8% 8.0–13.6%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 9.1% 7.9–10.6% 7.6–11.0% 7.3–11.3% 6.8–12.1%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–4.9% 2.0–5.4%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.8% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.1% 1.6–4.6%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.5% 1.5–3.7% 1.3–4.1%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 0.9–3.3%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.7–3.0%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.5% 0.4–1.6% 0.2–2.0%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.5% 0.4–1.6% 0.2–2.0%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.1–1.6%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 26 26–29 25–30 25–30 23–30
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 23 20–23 19–23 18–24 17–24
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 9 9–10 9–11 8–11 7–12
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 7–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.7%  
24 1.2% 99.2%  
25 3% 98%  
26 58% 95% Median
27 21% 37%  
28 3% 15%  
29 4% 12%  
30 8% 8%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 2% 100%  
18 2% 98%  
19 6% 96%  
20 21% 91%  
21 14% 70%  
22 2% 56%  
23 51% 54% Median
24 3% 3%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.6% 100%  
8 2% 99.3%  
9 73% 97% Median
10 16% 24%  
11 8% 9%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 6% 99.9%  
7 12% 94%  
8 69% 82% Median
9 9% 13%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 5% 98%  
7 44% 93% Median
8 2% 49%  
9 47% 48%  
10 0.3% 0.5%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 28%  
2 0% 28%  
3 0.2% 28%  
4 25% 28%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.4%  
2 0% 1.4%  
3 0.4% 1.4%  
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.2%  
2 0% 1.2%  
3 0% 1.2%  
4 1.2% 1.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 6% 99.9%  
7 12% 94%  
8 69% 82% Median
9 9% 13%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations