Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 25–26 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.4% 28.4–30.5% 28.1–30.8% 27.8–31.0% 27.4–31.5%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.9% 22.0–23.9% 21.7–24.2% 21.5–24.4% 21.0–24.9%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.3% 9.6–11.0% 9.5–11.2% 9.3–11.4% 9.0–11.8%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 9.6% 8.9–10.3% 8.8–10.5% 8.6–10.7% 8.3–11.0%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.8% 8.2–9.5% 8.0–9.7% 7.9–9.8% 7.6–10.2%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.8% 3.4–4.2% 3.2–4.4% 3.1–4.5% 3.0–4.7%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.4% 2.5–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 2.1–2.8% 2.0–2.9% 2.0–3.0% 1.8–3.2%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.1% 1.8–2.5% 1.7–2.6% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.3–1.9% 1.3–2.0% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.3%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–1.8% 1.2–1.9% 1.1–2.0% 1.0–2.1%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.2% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 27 25–29 25–29 25–29 25–29
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 21 21–22 20–23 20–23 19–23
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–11
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 34% 99.9%  
26 8% 66%  
27 14% 58% Median
28 28% 43%  
29 15% 15%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 1.0% 100%  
20 6% 99.0%  
21 56% 93% Median
22 30% 37%  
23 7% 7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.8% 100%  
9 71% 99.2% Median
10 27% 28%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.2% 100%  
7 23% 99.8%  
8 75% 77% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 7% 99.9%  
8 81% 92% Median
9 11% 11%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 42%  
2 0% 42%  
3 0% 42%  
4 42% 42%  
5 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 7% 99.9%  
8 81% 92% Median
9 11% 11%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations