Opinion Poll by Tecnè, 3–4 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.4% | 27.6–31.3% | 27.1–31.8% | 26.7–32.3% | 25.8–33.2% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 23.7% | 22.0–25.5% | 21.6–26.0% | 21.2–26.4% | 20.4–27.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 11.1% | 9.9–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.7–13.9% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.5% | 9.3–11.8% | 9.0–12.2% | 8.7–12.6% | 8.2–13.2% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–5.0% | 2.3–5.4% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 23–27 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 21–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 18–23 | 17–23 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 23 | 12% | 95% | |
| 24 | 36% | 82% | Median |
| 25 | 20% | 46% | |
| 26 | 14% | 26% | |
| 27 | 11% | 12% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 12% | 98% | |
| 19 | 32% | 86% | |
| 20 | 27% | 54% | Median |
| 21 | 18% | 27% | |
| 22 | 5% | 9% | |
| 23 | 3% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 13% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 50% | 86% | Median |
| 9 | 21% | 37% | |
| 10 | 14% | 16% | |
| 11 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 38% | 94% | |
| 9 | 34% | 56% | Median |
| 10 | 17% | 21% | |
| 11 | 4% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 40% | 97% | |
| 7 | 38% | 57% | Median |
| 8 | 17% | 19% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 57% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 43% | |
| 2 | 0% | 43% | |
| 3 | 18% | 43% | |
| 4 | 24% | 25% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 2% | 5% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 40% | 97% | |
| 7 | 38% | 57% | Median |
| 8 | 17% | 19% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Tecnè
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–4 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.50%