Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 2–7 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.5% 27.8–31.2% 27.4–31.7% 27.0–32.1% 26.2–33.0%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.7% 21.2–24.3% 20.7–24.7% 20.4–25.1% 19.7–25.9%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.4% 10.3–12.7% 10.0–13.0% 9.7–13.4% 9.2–14.0%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.7% 7.7–9.8% 7.4–10.1% 7.2–10.4% 6.8–11.0%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.5% 7.5–9.6% 7.3–9.9% 7.0–10.2% 6.6–10.8%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.8% 3.2–4.6% 3.0–4.9% 2.9–5.1% 2.6–5.5%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.3–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.3%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.5–3.9%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.8% 1.6–3.0% 1.5–3.2% 1.3–3.5%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.1–3.2%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 28 27–29 26–29 26–29 25–31
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 21 20–23 20–23 19–23 18–23
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 9–12 9–12 9–12 9–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.3% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.7%  
26 4% 98.6%  
27 11% 94%  
28 47% 83% Median
29 34% 36%  
30 0.7% 2%  
31 1.0% 1.0%  
32 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.4%  
20 36% 96%  
21 21% 60% Median
22 4% 38%  
23 34% 35%  
24 0.1% 0.3%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 37% 99.7%  
10 3% 63%  
11 13% 60% Median
12 44% 47%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.2% 100%  
6 32% 98.7%  
7 56% 67% Median
8 6% 11%  
9 6% 6%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 56% 98% Median
8 12% 41%  
9 30% 30%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 7% 8%  
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 56% 98% Median
8 12% 41%  
9 30% 30%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations