Opinion Poll by EMG for Rai 3, 8–9 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.3% | 27.8–30.8% | 27.4–31.2% | 27.1–31.6% | 26.4–32.4% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.2% | 20.9–23.6% | 20.5–24.0% | 20.2–24.4% | 19.6–25.0% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.0–13.2% | 10.7–13.5% | 10.5–13.7% | 10.0–14.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.6–9.5% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.2–10.0% | 6.8–10.5% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.2% | 7.4–9.2% | 7.1–9.5% | 6.9–9.7% | 6.5–10.2% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.3–4.6% | 3.1–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.3% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.1% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.8% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.6–3.7% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.7% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.3–3.2% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.6–2.1% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 26 | 24–28 | 24–28 | 24–29 | 23–30 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 13% | 98% | |
| 25 | 17% | 85% | |
| 26 | 35% | 68% | Median |
| 27 | 23% | 33% | |
| 28 | 6% | 10% | |
| 29 | 4% | 4% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 8% | 100% | |
| 18 | 12% | 92% | |
| 19 | 19% | 81% | |
| 20 | 34% | 61% | Median |
| 21 | 21% | 27% | |
| 22 | 5% | 6% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 27% | 95% | |
| 11 | 58% | 68% | Median |
| 12 | 6% | 9% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 9% | 100% | |
| 6 | 33% | 91% | |
| 7 | 50% | 58% | Median |
| 8 | 7% | 8% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 54% | 94% | Median |
| 8 | 27% | 40% | |
| 9 | 12% | 13% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 60% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 40% | |
| 2 | 0% | 40% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 40% | |
| 4 | 37% | 39% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 54% | 94% | Median |
| 8 | 27% | 40% | |
| 9 | 12% | 13% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: EMG
- Commissioner(s): Rai 3
- Fieldwork period: 8–9 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1523
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.25%