Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 23–28 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.7% 28.0–31.4% 27.5–31.9% 27.1–32.3% 26.4–33.2%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.5% 21.0–24.1% 20.6–24.6% 20.2–25.0% 19.5–25.7%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.6% 10.5–12.8% 10.2–13.2% 9.9–13.5% 9.4–14.2%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.8% 7.9–10.0% 7.6–10.3% 7.3–10.6% 6.9–11.2%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.6% 7.6–9.7% 7.3–10.0% 7.1–10.3% 6.7–10.9%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.5% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–4.9% 2.5–5.3%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.8–3.3% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.8%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.8–3.3% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.8%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.8% 1.6–3.0% 1.5–3.2% 1.3–3.5%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.1–3.2%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 30 26–30 26–30 25–30 24–31
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 20 19–22 19–23 19–23 18–24
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10–12 10–13 9–13 9–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 6–10
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.1%  
26 13% 97%  
27 9% 84%  
28 10% 75%  
29 9% 64%  
30 53% 55% Median
31 2% 2%  
32 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 8% 98%  
20 67% 90% Median
21 11% 23%  
22 3% 11%  
23 6% 9%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 64% 97% Median
11 15% 34%  
12 10% 19%  
13 9% 9%  
14 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.8% 100%  
6 11% 99.2%  
7 62% 88% Median
8 23% 26%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.7% 99.9%  
7 31% 99.1%  
8 63% 68% Median
9 4% 6%  
10 1.1% 1.4%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 0% 9%  
4 6% 8%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.7%  
2 0% 0.7%  
3 0% 0.7%  
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 7–8 7–9 7–9 6–10

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.7% 99.9%  
7 31% 99.1%  
8 63% 68% Median
9 4% 6%  
10 1.1% 1.4%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations