Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 1–4 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.8% | 27.2–30.5% | 26.7–31.0% | 26.3–31.5% | 25.6–32.3% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.7% | 21.2–24.3% | 20.8–24.7% | 20.4–25.1% | 19.7–25.9% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.9% | 10.7–13.2% | 10.4–13.5% | 10.2–13.8% | 9.6–14.5% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 8.1–10.3% | 7.9–10.6% | 7.6–10.9% | 7.2–11.5% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.9% | 7.9–10.0% | 7.6–10.3% | 7.4–10.6% | 7.0–11.2% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.6–4.7% | 2.3–5.1% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.4% | 1.5–3.8% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.2% | 1.3–3.6% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.5–3.2% | 1.3–3.5% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.5–3.2% | 1.3–3.5% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 25 | 24–27 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 21–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 7% | 98% | |
| 24 | 25% | 90% | |
| 25 | 34% | 65% | Median |
| 26 | 21% | 31% | |
| 27 | 10% | 11% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.5% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 10% | 98% | |
| 19 | 26% | 88% | |
| 20 | 27% | 62% | Median |
| 21 | 31% | 35% | |
| 22 | 5% | 5% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 27% | 98% | |
| 10 | 42% | 72% | Median |
| 11 | 21% | 30% | |
| 12 | 8% | 8% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 32% | 98% | |
| 7 | 48% | 66% | Median |
| 8 | 15% | 18% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 30% | 95% | |
| 8 | 55% | 65% | Median |
| 9 | 9% | 10% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 13% | |
| 3 | 3% | 13% | |
| 4 | 10% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 30% | 95% | |
| 8 | 55% | 65% | Median |
| 9 | 9% | 10% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Quorum – YouTrend
- Commissioner(s): Sky TG24
- Fieldwork period: 1–4 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1204
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.86%