Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 20–25 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.4% | 27.8–31.2% | 27.3–31.6% | 26.9–32.1% | 26.1–32.9% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.6% | 21.1–24.2% | 20.7–24.6% | 20.3–25.0% | 19.6–25.8% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.2% | 10.1–12.4% | 9.8–12.8% | 9.5–13.1% | 9.0–13.7% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.9% | 7.9–10.1% | 7.7–10.4% | 7.4–10.7% | 7.0–11.2% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7.7–9.8% | 7.4–10.1% | 7.2–10.4% | 6.8–11.0% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.6% | 3.0–4.8% | 2.8–5.0% | 2.5–5.4% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.9–3.7% | 1.7–4.1% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.8–3.7% | 1.6–4.0% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.1–3.2% |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 27 | 26–29 | 25–29 | 25–29 | 23–31 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 18–24 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 25 | 6% | 98% | |
| 26 | 12% | 92% | |
| 27 | 44% | 80% | Median |
| 28 | 22% | 35% | |
| 29 | 12% | 14% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 13% | 97% | |
| 20 | 16% | 85% | |
| 21 | 29% | 69% | Median |
| 22 | 24% | 40% | |
| 23 | 15% | 16% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 20% | 98% | |
| 10 | 41% | 79% | Median |
| 11 | 34% | 38% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 6 | 26% | 99.4% | |
| 7 | 40% | 73% | Median |
| 8 | 29% | 34% | |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 16% | 99.0% | |
| 8 | 46% | 83% | Median |
| 9 | 35% | 36% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 4 | 15% | 16% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 3% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sud chiama Nord (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 16% | 99.0% | |
| 8 | 46% | 83% | Median |
| 9 | 35% | 36% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 20–25 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.75%