Opinion Poll by Winpoll, 21–28 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.8% | 26.4–29.3% | 25.9–29.8% | 25.6–30.1% | 24.9–30.9% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 26.1% | 24.7–27.6% | 24.3–28.1% | 24.0–28.4% | 23.3–29.2% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.4% | 9.4–11.5% | 9.2–11.8% | 8.9–12.1% | 8.5–12.6% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.4% | 8.5–10.4% | 8.2–10.7% | 8.0–11.0% | 7.6–11.5% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7.8–9.7% | 7.5–10.0% | 7.3–10.2% | 7.0–10.7% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.5–5.0% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–2.9% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.5–3.5% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.7% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.3–3.3% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.7% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.3–3.3% |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.3–2.8% | 1.2–3.0% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.9% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.4% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 25 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 24 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–26 | 21–27 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 23% | 98% | |
| 24 | 16% | 76% | |
| 25 | 30% | 59% | Median |
| 26 | 17% | 30% | |
| 27 | 10% | 12% | |
| 28 | 2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 11% | 96% | |
| 23 | 31% | 84% | |
| 24 | 23% | 53% | Median |
| 25 | 23% | 30% | |
| 26 | 5% | 7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 19% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 45% | 80% | Median |
| 10 | 27% | 35% | |
| 11 | 8% | 8% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 38% | 93% | |
| 8 | 44% | 55% | Median |
| 9 | 9% | 11% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 100% | |
| 7 | 32% | 91% | |
| 8 | 37% | 59% | Median |
| 9 | 19% | 22% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0% | 17% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 4 | 15% | 16% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 100% | |
| 7 | 32% | 91% | |
| 8 | 37% | 59% | Median |
| 9 | 19% | 22% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Winpoll
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 21–28 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.26%