Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 5–6 December 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 27.5% 25.9–29.2% 25.5–29.7% 25.1–30.1% 24.3–31.0%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 24.2% 22.7–25.8% 22.2–26.3% 21.9–26.7% 21.1–27.5%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.6% 10.5–12.8% 10.1–13.2% 9.9–13.5% 9.4–14.1%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.6% 7.6–9.7% 7.3–10.0% 7.1–10.3% 6.7–10.9%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 7.8% 6.9–8.9% 6.6–9.2% 6.4–9.5% 6.0–10.0%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.6–4.7% 2.3–5.1%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.3% 2.5–4.5% 2.2–4.9%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.8% 1.6–3.0% 1.5–3.2% 1.3–3.5%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.4%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 23 23–25 22–26 22–27 21–27
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 23 21–23 20–23 20–23 19–24
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–10 9–11 9–11 8–12
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 7–8 7–9 6–9 6–10
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9%  
22 6% 99.5%  
23 64% 93% Median
24 13% 29%  
25 8% 15%  
26 4% 7%  
27 4% 4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.6%  
20 6% 98%  
21 10% 92%  
22 19% 82%  
23 62% 63% Median
24 0.8% 0.9%  
25 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.2% 100%  
9 12% 98.8%  
10 80% 87% Median
11 6% 7%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 4% 100%  
7 21% 96%  
8 69% 74% Median
9 5% 6%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 11% 98%  
6 82% 86% Median
7 3% 4%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 5% 12%  
4 7% 7%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0.7% 6%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 7–8 7–9 6–9 6–10

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 4% 100%  
7 21% 96%  
8 69% 74% Median
9 5% 6%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations