Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 4–9 December 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.8% 27.2–30.6% 26.7–31.0% 26.3–31.5% 25.6–32.3%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.4% 20.9–24.0% 20.5–24.5% 20.1–24.9% 19.4–25.7%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.5% 10.4–12.8% 10.1–13.1% 9.8–13.4% 9.3–14.1%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 9.2% 8.2–10.3% 7.9–10.7% 7.7–10.9% 7.2–11.5%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.7% 7.7–9.8% 7.4–10.1% 7.2–10.4% 6.8–11.0%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.8% 3.2–4.6% 3.0–4.9% 2.9–5.1% 2.6–5.5%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–3.9% 2.4–4.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.7%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.5–3.9%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.8–3.3% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.8%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 26 24–28 24–28 24–29 22–29
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 21 18–22 18–22 18–23 18–24
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10–12 10–12 9–12 8–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 7–8 7–9 6–9 6–9
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.7% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.3%  
24 18% 98.9%  
25 25% 81%  
26 14% 56% Median
27 24% 42%  
28 14% 18%  
29 4% 4%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 10% 99.9%  
19 6% 90%  
20 20% 84%  
21 19% 63% Median
22 39% 44%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.8% 0.8%  
25 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.0% 100%  
9 2% 99.0%  
10 56% 96% Median
11 17% 41%  
12 23% 24%  
13 1.1% 1.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 3% 99.7%  
7 56% 96% Median
8 30% 40%  
9 9% 10%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 7% 99.9%  
7 25% 93%  
8 52% 68% Median
9 12% 16%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 45%  
2 0% 45%  
3 10% 45%  
4 34% 35%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 0.3% 13%  
4 13% 13%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 7% 99.9%  
7 25% 93%  
8 52% 68% Median
9 12% 16%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations