Opinion Poll by Demopolis, 12–13 December 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.5% 28.2–30.8% 27.8–31.2% 27.5–31.6% 26.9–32.2%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 24.0% 22.8–25.3% 22.5–25.6% 22.2–25.9% 21.6–26.5%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.8% 10.9–12.8% 10.7–13.0% 10.5–13.3% 10.0–13.8%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.7% 7.9–9.6% 7.7–9.8% 7.5–10.0% 7.2–10.5%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 2.0–2.9% 1.9–3.0% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.4%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.3%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 25 24–26 23–26 23–27 22–27
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 20 19–21 19–22 19–22 18–23
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 7–8 7–8 6–9 6–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.5% 100%  
23 6% 99.5%  
24 30% 93%  
25 38% 64% Median
26 21% 26%  
27 4% 4%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 2% 100%  
19 14% 98%  
20 41% 84% Median
21 35% 43%  
22 7% 8%  
23 0.6% 0.6%  
24 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.5% 100%  
9 22% 99.5%  
10 54% 77% Median
11 22% 23%  
12 1.4% 1.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 36% 98%  
7 54% 63% Median
8 8% 8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 3% 100%  
7 57% 97% Median
8 37% 40%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 9% 13%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 7–8 7–8 6–9 6–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 3% 100%  
7 57% 97% Median
8 37% 40%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations