Opinion Poll by Tecnè, 19–20 December 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.6% | 26.8–30.5% | 26.3–31.0% | 25.8–31.4% | 25.0–32.4% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 23.7% | 22.1–25.5% | 21.6–26.0% | 21.2–26.5% | 20.4–27.4% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 11.4% | 10.2–12.8% | 9.9–13.2% | 9.6–13.5% | 9.0–14.3% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.7% | 9.6–12.1% | 9.2–12.5% | 8.9–12.8% | 8.4–13.5% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.8% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.4% | 7.2–10.7% | 6.7–11.4% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–2.8% | 1.0–3.2% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 25 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–28 | 22–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 12% | 97% | |
| 24 | 24% | 85% | |
| 25 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 26 | 27% | 45% | |
| 27 | 15% | 18% | |
| 28 | 3% | 4% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 23% | 98% | |
| 20 | 23% | 74% | |
| 21 | 27% | 51% | Median |
| 22 | 15% | 24% | |
| 23 | 5% | 9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 3% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 33% | 97% | |
| 9 | 35% | 64% | Median |
| 10 | 25% | 29% | |
| 11 | 3% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 8 | 15% | 99.4% | |
| 9 | 39% | 84% | Median |
| 10 | 31% | 45% | |
| 11 | 14% | 15% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 30% | 92% | |
| 8 | 45% | 62% | Median |
| 9 | 15% | 17% | |
| 10 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 65% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 35% | |
| 2 | 0% | 35% | |
| 3 | 8% | 35% | |
| 4 | 26% | 27% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 30% | 92% | |
| 8 | 45% | 62% | Median |
| 9 | 15% | 17% | |
| 10 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Tecnè
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 19–20 December 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 998
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.48%