Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 18–23 December 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.1% 27.4–30.8% 27.0–31.3% 26.6–31.7% 25.8–32.6%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.2% 20.7–23.8% 20.3–24.2% 19.9–24.6% 19.2–25.4%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.5% 10.4–12.8% 10.1–13.1% 9.8–13.4% 9.3–14.1%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 9.1% 8.1–10.2% 7.8–10.6% 7.6–10.9% 7.1–11.4%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.8% 7.9–10.0% 7.6–10.3% 7.3–10.6% 6.9–11.2%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.5% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–4.9% 2.5–5.3%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–3.9% 2.4–4.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.7%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.7% 1.7–4.1%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.8–3.3% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.8%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.1–3.2%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 27 25–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 20 18–22 18–23 18–24 17–24
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 9–12 9–12 9–12 9–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–11
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.7%  
25 10% 98%  
26 30% 88%  
27 19% 58% Median
28 28% 39%  
29 5% 11%  
30 5% 6%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.4% 99.9%  
18 20% 98.5%  
19 16% 79%  
20 33% 63% Median
21 14% 29%  
22 6% 15%  
23 6% 9%  
24 4% 4%  
25 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 11% 99.8%  
10 33% 89%  
11 45% 56% Median
12 9% 11%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.6% 100%  
6 11% 99.4%  
7 23% 88%  
8 33% 65% Median
9 29% 32%  
10 0.8% 2%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 3% 100%  
7 17% 97%  
8 63% 81% Median
9 15% 17%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 32%  
2 0% 32%  
3 0.1% 32%  
4 30% 32%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0.1% 5%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 3% 100%  
7 17% 97%  
8 63% 81% Median
9 15% 17%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations