Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 8–9 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.4% 28.3–30.6% 27.9–30.9% 27.7–31.2% 27.1–31.7%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 23.1% 22.0–24.2% 21.7–24.5% 21.5–24.7% 21.0–25.3%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.2–11.8% 10.0–12.1% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.6% 7.9–9.3% 7.7–9.5% 7.6–9.7% 7.2–10.1%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.2% 7.5–8.9% 7.3–9.1% 7.2–9.3% 6.9–9.7%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 3.1–4.1% 3.0–4.2% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.6% 2.3–3.1% 2.1–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 1.9–3.5%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 2.0–2.8% 1.9–2.9% 1.8–3.0% 1.7–3.2%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.3% 2.0–2.7% 1.9–2.9% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.5–2.2% 1.4–2.3% 1.4–2.4% 1.2–2.6%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.7% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.2% 1.0–1.5% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.8% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 27 26–29 25–29 25–29 24–30
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 22 21–22 20–23 19–23 19–23
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–9
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 6 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–8
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 1.2% 100%  
25 8% 98.8%  
26 18% 90%  
27 23% 72% Median
28 20% 49%  
29 27% 29%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.3% 100%  
19 2% 99.7%  
20 7% 97%  
21 35% 90%  
22 46% 55% Median
23 9% 9%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 100%  
9 11% 98%  
10 67% 87% Median
11 18% 20%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.0% 100%  
7 19% 99.0%  
8 69% 80% Median
9 11% 11%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 6% 100%  
6 59% 94% Median
7 21% 35%  
8 14% 14%  
9 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 0.5% 11%  
4 10% 10%  
5 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 8 0% 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.0% 100%  
7 19% 99.0%  
8 69% 80% Median
9 11% 11%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations