Opinion Poll by Eumetra for La7, 4–5 February 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.5% | 27.5–31.6% | 26.9–32.2% | 26.4–32.8% | 25.5–33.8% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 23.2% | 21.4–25.3% | 20.9–25.8% | 20.5–26.3% | 19.6–27.3% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.4% | 10.0–12.9% | 9.7–13.4% | 9.4–13.8% | 8.7–14.6% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 7.9–10.6% | 7.6–11.0% | 7.3–11.3% | 6.8–12.1% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 8.6% | 7.5–10.0% | 7.1–10.4% | 6.9–10.8% | 6.4–11.5% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.2–4.7% | 1.9–5.2% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.0–3.5% | 1.9–3.8% | 1.7–4.0% | 1.5–4.5% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.0–3.5% | 1.9–3.8% | 1.7–4.0% | 1.5–4.5% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.3–3.4% | 1.1–3.8% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.1–3.1% | 0.9–3.5% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% | 0.1–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 27 | 25–28 | 24–29 | 23–29 | 22–30 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 17–23 | 17–24 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 7–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 24 | 4% | 97% | |
| 25 | 14% | 94% | |
| 26 | 28% | 80% | |
| 27 | 22% | 52% | Median |
| 28 | 19% | 29% | |
| 29 | 9% | 10% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 3% | 97% | |
| 19 | 7% | 94% | |
| 20 | 40% | 87% | Median |
| 21 | 21% | 47% | |
| 22 | 17% | 26% | |
| 23 | 7% | 9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 8 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 29% | 97% | |
| 10 | 36% | 68% | Median |
| 11 | 22% | 32% | |
| 12 | 8% | 10% | |
| 13 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 10% | 97% | |
| 7 | 53% | 87% | Median |
| 8 | 18% | 34% | |
| 9 | 15% | 16% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 33% | 93% | |
| 8 | 35% | 60% | Median |
| 9 | 22% | 25% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 4 | 4% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 33% | 93% | |
| 8 | 35% | 60% | Median |
| 9 | 22% | 25% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Eumetra
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 4–5 February 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.59%