Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 6–7 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.2% 27.2–31.4% 26.7–31.9% 26.2–32.5% 25.3–33.5%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.8% 20.9–24.7% 20.4–25.3% 20.0–25.8% 19.1–26.8%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.4% 10.1–13.0% 9.7–13.4% 9.4–13.8% 8.8–14.6%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.8% 7.7–10.2% 7.3–10.7% 7.1–11.0% 6.5–11.7%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 8.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7% 6.3–10.0% 5.8–10.7%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.7% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.5%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.1–4.0% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.7%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.5–3.7% 1.3–4.1%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.5–3.7% 1.3–4.1%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.3% 1.4–3.5% 1.2–4.0%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.6% 0.2–1.9%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 25 24–28 23–28 22–29 22–30
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 20 18–22 18–22 17–23 17–23
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–11 9–12 8–12 7–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–9
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–3 0–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 7% 97%  
24 14% 90%  
25 31% 76% Median
26 13% 46%  
27 22% 32%  
28 7% 10%  
29 2% 3%  
30 1.3% 1.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 100%  
17 3% 99.7%  
18 11% 97%  
19 24% 86%  
20 31% 62% Median
21 14% 31%  
22 13% 17%  
23 4% 4%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.5% 100%  
8 4% 99.5%  
9 26% 96%  
10 27% 70% Median
11 36% 43%  
12 6% 7%  
13 0.9% 1.0%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 11% 99.9%  
6 30% 89%  
7 36% 59% Median
8 22% 23%  
9 0.9% 1.0%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 32% 96%  
7 39% 64% Median
8 20% 24%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 28%  
2 0% 28%  
3 4% 28%  
4 23% 24%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0.4% 3%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.1% 0.3%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0.1% 0.5%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–9

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 32% 96%  
7 39% 64% Median
8 20% 24%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations